This article is part of a series of articles I will be completing throughout the year, where I am going to analyze the average pace of the drivers and teams, in both qualifying and the races, to be able to gain a picture of performance levels.
I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. One caveat that arises, is that the top 10 drivers, through progressing to the final qualifying session, have a better track condition that those who only took part in Q1 or Q2. Due to this, the gap will be larger for the drivers outside the top ten than if qualifying was performed in one representative session. However, since the final session represents the point at which the top drivers are truly pushing, I’ve ruled it a better grounding point for the true limit of the cars, rather than only focusing on the first qualifying session in which the best times are not recorded.
Qualifying Pace-
With no further ado, here are the gaps to pole[1]:
And for the teams:
Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their fastest lap times set in the same session, so if one driver got into Q3, whilst the other only got into Q2, then I would count their Q2 times. Additionally, the lap times have to be representative, to avoid comparing out laps completed before a driver breaks down, as this would give us a very inaccurate representation of the drivers’ pace:
Race Pace-
Next up in our data sets is the race pace of the drivers. I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing first laps, in-laps, out-laps and safety car laps, all not representative of a driver’s general pace. Additionally, if a driver has a spin, or another error that would greatly reduce their lap time, I have not counted these laps, as they would also not be representative of a drivers’ general pace. I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the race distance (which for Bahrain, happens to be all the drivers) so to not skew the season long averages against drivers that did not drive on low fuel with the best track conditions.
As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be taken into account in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.[2]
And for the teams:
Analysis-
- The Ferrari [and the Mercedes, for that matter] appear to have better tyre degradation than the Red Bull, at least based on this preliminary data. Sainz’s average time throughout a stint barely dropped at all, whilst Verstappen and Perez on the same tyre dropped around a second throughout the stint. This being ubiquitous between Verstappen and Perez also lessens the possibility that this was merely due to the drivers taking it easy. The primary problem, at the moment, is that the Red Bull begins stints so much faster than the Ferrari, that the degradation at the end of the stint fails to matter. But if this proves to be a theme throughout this season, then Ferrari could start challenging for race wins.[3]
- Verstappen’s relative dominance over Perez is clear within their third stints. Verstappen set the fastest lap on lap 39 and this appeared to take a lot out of his soft tyres, setting quite slow times on lap 40 and 41. Nevertheless, by lap 43 Verstappen began posting times consistently faster than Perez.
- The McLaren and the Mercedes showed pretty similar pace throughout the race, positing beginning stint times within a few tenths of each other, all having similar degradation and there being little between the average pace of the four drivers. This may have been compounded by spending some of the race in each other’s dirty air, but they still appear to be the most evenly matched of the top five teams.
- Haas do not look bad based on this data, Hulkenberg in particular impressing. His first stint was only slower than Verstappen, Perez, Russell and Sainz and his third stint was quicker than the McLarens’. Overall, his pace was better than both Aston Martins. Whilst tyre differential from his early stop to new hard tyres may have played a part in this, as well as placing him outside the dirty air, the Haas team still have a lot to be proud of, completely exceeding the standards they set for themselves.
- Pierre Gasly’s average pace is exaggerated by his being one of two drivers to have four race stints. This led to his fourth stint on new softs being the seventh fastest of the race. Without Gasly’s four stints, it’s likely that Alpine would be the slowest team on average in both qualifying and the race. This is looking like an incredibly difficult year for Alpine, which is a shame, because they have two talented young drivers who now look like they’ll be competing with each other to not be last.
Further Resources-
Qualifying Pace:
| Driver | Fastest Qualifying Time |
| Charles Leclerc | 89.165 (0%) |
| Max Verstappen | 89.179 (+0.016%) |
| George Russell | 89.485 (+0.359%) |
| Carlos Sainz | 89.507 (+0.384%) |
| Sergio Perez | 89.537 (+0.417%) |
| Fernando Alonso | 89.542 (+0.423%) |
| Lando Norris | 89.614 (+0.504%) |
| Oscar Piastri | 89.683 (+0.581%) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 89.71 (+0.611%) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 89.851 (+0.769%) |
| Lance Stroll | 89.965 (+0.897%) |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 90.129 (+1.081%) |
| Alexander Albon | 90.221 (+1.184%) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 90.278 (+1.248%) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 90.529 (+1.530%) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 90.756 (+1.784%) |
| Zhou Guanyu | 90.757 (+1.785%) |
| Logan Sargeant | 90.77 (+1.800%) |
| Esteban Ocon | 90.793 (+1.826%) |
| Pierre Gasly | 90.948 (+2.000%) |
Average Race Pace:
| Driver | Pace |
| Max Verstappen | 95.654 (0%) |
| Sergio Perez | 96.059 (+0.423%) |
| Carlos Sainz | 96.103 (0.469%) |
| Charles Leclerc | 96.368 (+0.746%) |
| Lando Norris | 96.464 (+0.845%) |
| George Russell | 96.474 (+0.857%) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 96.514 (+0.899%) |
| Oscar Piastri | 96.538 (+0.923%) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 96.855 (+1.255%) |
| Fernando Alonso | 96.94 (+1.344%) |
| Lance Stroll | 97.124 (+1.537%) |
| Pierre Gasly | 97.305 (+1.725%) |
| Zhou Guanyu | 97.407 (+1.833%) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 97.429 (+1.855%) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 97.465 (+1.893%) |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 97.486 (+1.914%) |
| Alex Albon | 97.535 (+1.966%) |
| Logan Sargeant | 97.561 (+1.993%) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 97.719 (+2.159%) |
| Esteban Ocon | 97.811 (+2.254%) |
All Stints:
| Best Stints | Pace |
| Verstappen 3rd (19L/NS) | 94.685 |
| Alonso 3rd (15L/NH) | 94.992 |
| Perez 3rd (20L/NS) | 95.037 |
| Sainz 3rd (21L/NH) | 95.052 |
| Leclerc 3rd (22L/NH) | 95.222 |
| Hamilton 3rd (23L/NH) | 95.414 |
| Gasly 4th (12L/NS) | 95.473 |
| Hulkenberg 3rd (14L/US) | 95.493 |
| Piastri 3rd (22L/NH) | 95.506 |
| Norris 3rd (23L/NH) | 95.527 |
| Verstappen 2nd (18L/NH) | 95.58 |
| Russell 3rd (25L/NH) | 95.72 |
| Sargeant 4th (14L/NS) | 95.977 |
| Ricciardo 3rd (20L/NS) | 96.149 |
| Sainz 2nd (19L/NH) | 96.279 |
| Perez 2nd (22L/NH) | 96.281 |
| Albon 3rd (19L/NH) | 96.287 |
| Stroll 3rd (29L/NH) | 96.432 |
| Magnussen 3rd (23L/NH) | 96.501 |
| Gasly 3rd (10L/NH) | 96.541 |
| Sargeant 3rd (10L/NH) | 96.675 |
| Tsunoda 2nd (21L/NH) | 96.677 |
| Norris 2nd (18L/NH) | 96.767 |
| Zhou 3rd (27L/NH) | 96.856 |
| Leclerc 2nd (21L/NH) | 96.898 |
| Piastri 2nd (20L/NH) | 96.898 |
| Hamilton 2nd (19L/NH) | 96.939 |
| Verstappen 1st (15L/US) | 96.972 |
| Russell 2nd (18L/NH) | 96.973 |
| Hulkenberg 2nd (19L/NH) | 96.997 |
| Bottas 3rd (25L/NH) | 97.037 |
| Ocon 3rd (25L/NH) | 97.087 |
| Alonso 2nd (24L/NH) | 97.299 |
| Russell 1st (9L/US) | 97.571 |
| Perez 1st (10L/US) | 97.615 |
| Zhou 2nd (17L/NH) | 97.663 |
| Sainz 1st (12L/US) | 97.665 |
| Tsunoda 2nd (18L/NH) | 97.703 |
| Stroll 2nd (16L/NH) | 97.752 |
| Hulkenberg 1st (17L/NH) | 97.816 |
| Ricciardo 2nd (20L/NH) | 97.842 |
| Norris 1st (11L/US) | 97.926 |
| Leclerc 1st (9L/US) | 97.934 |
| Albon 2nd (19L/NH) | 97.956 |
| Bottas 2nd (16L/NH) | 97.962 |
| Magnussen 2nd (19L/NH) | 97.97 |
| Gasly 2nd (17L/NH) | 98.081 |
| Piastri 1st (10L/US) | 98.086 |
| Hamilton 1st (10L/US) | 98.237 |
| Ocon 2nd (18L/NH) | 98.293 |
| Alonso 1st (13L/US) | 98.524 |
| Stroll 1st (7L/NS) | 98.558 |
| Tsunoda 1st (12L/NS) | 98.574 |
| Albon 1st (13L/NS) | 98.742 |
| Sargeant 2nd (16L/NH) | 98.823 |
| Magnussen 1st (9L/NS) | 98.861 |
| Zhou 1st (7L/NS) | 98.911 |
| Sargeant 1st (8L/NS) | 98.916 |
| Gasly 1st (10L/NS) | 98.947 |
| Ocon 1st (8L/NS) | 98.986 |
| Ricciardo 1st (11L/US) | 99.004 |
| Bottas 1st (10L/NS) | 99.038 |
Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NS= New Softs, US= Used Softs, NH= New Hards
Number of Stints:
| Number of Stints | Drivers |
| 3 | Verstappen, Perez, Sainz, Leclerc, Russell, Norris, Hamilton, Piastri, Alonso, Stroll, Zhou, Magnussen, Ricciardo, Tsunoda, Albon, Hulkenberg, Ocon, Bottas |
| 4 | Gasly, Sargeant |
[1] Or, more accurately, the fastest time in qualifying, which in this case, was not pole, as Leclerc set a faster time than Verstappen’s pole time in Qualifying 2.
[2] I only count a stint if a driver has completed five or more laps, to avoid short stints for fastest lap attempts skewing the data on the table.
[3] I discounted the third stints when coming to this conclusion, as the Red Bull and Ferrari were on different tyres.
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