This article is part of a series of articles I will be completing throughout the year, where I am going to analyze the average pace of the drivers and teams, in both qualifying and the races, to be able to gain a picture of performance levels.
I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. One caveat that arises, is that the top 10 drivers, through progressing to the final qualifying session, have a better track condition that those who only took part in Q1 or Q2. Due to this, the gap will be larger for the drivers outside the top ten than if qualifying was performed in one representative session. However, since the final session represents the point at which the top drivers are truly pushing, I’ve ruled it a better grounding point for the true limit of the cars, rather than only focusing on the first qualifying session in which the best times are not recorded.
Qualifying Pace-
With no further ado, here are the gaps to pole:
And for the teams:
Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their fastest lap times set in the same session, so if one driver got into Q3, whilst the other only got into Q2, then I would count their Q2 times. Additionally, the lap times have to be representative, to avoid comparing out laps completed before a driver breaks down, as this would give us a very inaccurate representation of the drivers’ pace. Williams have no comparison for Australia, as Sargeant did not take part in the weekend after Albon’s crash:
Race Pace-
Next up in our data sets is the race pace of the drivers. I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing first laps, in-laps, out-laps and virtual safety car laps, as all these all not representative of a driver’s general pace. Additionally, if a driver has a spin, or another error that would greatly reduce their lap time, I have not counted these laps, as they would also not be representative of a drivers’ general pace.[1] I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the race distance (which for Australia, excludes Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen) so to not skew the season long averages against drivers that did not drive on low fuel with the best track conditions.
As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be taken into account in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally, the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.[2]
And for the teams:
Analysis:
- Ferrari had a good chance to win this race even if Verstappen did not retire. Perez’s pace was far off the Ferrari’s and McLaren’s; being 0.64% off Sainz’s average. This is more than Perez has been behind Verstappen for the first two races of the season, implying that Verstappen’s pace would have been slower too, albeit with track position.
- Leclerc, whilst weaker than Sainz throughout the weekend, started to show signs of improvement during his final stint, with his lap times dipping into the 79-second range. The Ferrari has seemed a tad inconsistent over the first few rounds, so my interpretation of this race’s data is that Leclerc is beginning to learn how to extract the maximum from his car but isn’t quite there yet.
- The McLaren race pace was also great in Australia. Whilst not quite measuring up to Ferrari in qualifying, they were with them in the race. Norris even set the fastest stint of the race. McLaren could be challenging for wins around similar circuits.
- There were three clear tiers this weekend, which are beginning to show up in the averages. The top tier is Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren, the middle tier seems to be Aston Martin, Mercedes and RB and the other teams seem to be in the lower tier. At this point, only the top three teams seem to hold any hope of race wins.
- Lap 18 was not included in the analysis for most drivers due to the presence of the VSC. Ocon and Bottas were exceptions as they were only around halfway through lap 17 when the green flag was called. The other notable exception was Magnussen, who seemed to have a perfect reaction to the green flag, as unlike every other driver in a similar position on the track to him, his lap time did not appear to be an outlier.
- Additionally, Magnussen appeared to have a minor problem in the last few laps, as the times began to dramatically drop. Without this drop off he would have outpaced Hulkenberg.
- Bottas showed decent pace throughout the race. He may have been in the hunt for points if Sauber’s pit stops were not occurring.
Further Resources-
Qualifying Pace:
| Driver | Fastest Qualifying Time |
| Max Verstappen | 75.915 (0%) |
| Carlos Sainz | 76.185 (+0.356%) |
| Sergio Perez | 76.274 (+0.473%) |
| Charles Leclerc | 76.304 (+0.512%) |
| Lando Norris | 76.315 (+0.527%) |
| Oscar Piastri | 76.572 (+0.865%) |
| Fernando Alonso | 76.71 (+1.047%) |
| George Russell | 76.724 (+1.066%) |
| Lance Stroll | 76.78 (+1.139%) |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 76.788 (+1.150%) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 76.96 (+1.377%) |
| Alexander Albon | 77.13 (+1.600%) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 77.34 (+1.877%) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 77.427 (+1.992%) |
| Esteban Ocon | 77.617 (+2.242%) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 77.976 (+2.715%) |
| Pierre Gasly | 77.982 (+2.723%) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 78.085 (+2.858%) |
| Zhou Guanyu | 78.188 (+2.994%) |
Average Race Pace:
| Driver | Pace |
| Carlos Sainz | 81.458 (0%) |
| Charles Leclerc | 81.491 (+0.040%) |
| Lando Norris | 81.552 (+0.115%) |
| Oscar Piastri | 81.749 (+0.356%) |
| Sergio Perez | 81.977 (+0.636%) |
| George Russell | 82.37 (+1.120%) |
| Fernando Alonso | 82.432 (+1.195%) |
| Lance Stroll | 82.541 (+1.329%) |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 82.609 (+1.413%) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 82.844 (+1.702%) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 82.858 (+1.719%) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 82.864 (+1.726%) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 82.887 (+1.754%) |
| Esteban Ocon | 82.897 (+1.766%) |
| Zhou Guanyu | 82.93 (+1.806%) |
| Alexander Albon | 82.941 (+1.820%) |
| Pierre Gasly | 83.146 (+2.072%) |
All Stints:
| Best Stints | Pace |
| Norris 3rd (16L/UH) | 80.333 |
| Sainz 3rd (15L/NH) | 80.485 |
| Piastri 3rd (16L/UH) | 80.561 |
| Leclerc 3rd (22L/NH) | 80.588 |
| Russell 3rd (10L/NH) | 80.7 |
| Perez 3rd (21L/NH) | 81.084 |
| Alonso 3rd (18L/UH) | 81.096 |
| Stroll 3rd (18L/UH) | 81.447 |
| Sainz 2nd (22L/NH) | 81.543 |
| Tsunoda 3rd (19L/NH) | 81.711 |
| Gasly 3rd (13L/NH) | 81.711 |
| Norris 2nd (22L/UH) | 81.764 |
| Hulkenberg 3rd (20L/NH) | 81.91 |
| Ocon 4th (12L/UH) | 81.93 |
| Leclerc 2nd (21L/NH) | 82.016 |
| Perez 2nd (17L/NH) | 82.18 |
| Magnussen 3rd (22L/NH) | 82.188 |
| Bottas 3rd (18L/NH) | 82.191 |
| Piastri 2nd (25L/UH) | 82.215 |
| Zhou 2nd/3rd (19L/NH) | 82.231 |
| Ricciardo 2nd/3rd (26L/NH) | 82.344 |
| Sainz 1st (14L/NM) | 82.367 |
| Albon 2nd/3rd (28L/NH) | 82.618 |
| Russell 2nd (33L/NH) | 82.731 |
| Leclerc 1st (7L/NM) | 82.754 |
| Alonso 2nd (22L/UM) | 82.764 |
| Norris 1st (12L/NM) | 82.787 |
| Piastri 1st (7L/NM) | 82.798 |
| Hulkenberg 2nd (16L/NM) | 82.887 |
| Ocon 2nd (5L/NH) | 83.077 |
| Ocon 3rd (24L/NH) | 83.12 |
| Tsunoda 2nd (23L/NH) | 83.126 |
| Stroll 2nd (25L/UH) | 83.155 |
| Bottas 2nd (25L/UH) | 83.155 |
| Perez 1st (12L/NM) | 83.177 |
| Russell 1st (6L/NM) | 83.168 |
| Alonso 1st (15L/UH) | 83.192 |
| Hamilton 2nd (7L/NH) | 83.205 |
| Albon 1st/2nd (17L/NH) | 83.252 |
| Gasly 2nd (22L/NH) | 83.263 |
| Stroll 1st (6L/UM) | 83.264 |
| Zhou 1st/2nd (25L/UH) | 83.273 |
| Ricciardo 1st/2nd (20L/NH) | 83.284 |
| Magnussen 2nd (23L/NH) | 83.347 |
| Tsunoda 1st (7L/NM) | 83.349 |
| Hamilton 1st (5L/NS) | 83.456 |
| Bottas 1st (6L/UM) | 83.624 |
| Ocon 1st (7L/NM) | 83.662 |
| Magnussen 1st (5L/NM) | 83.851 |
| Hulkenberg 1st (15L/NH) | 84.112 |
| Gasly 1st (15L/NM) | 84.219 |
Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NH= New Hards, UH= Used Hards, NM= New Mediums, NS= New Softs
Number of Stints:
| Number of Stints | Drivers |
| 2 | Albon*,Ricciardo*,Zhou*, Hamilton |
| 3 | Sainz, Leclerc, Norris, Piastri, Perez, Stroll, Tsunoda, Alonso, Hulkenberg, Magnussen, Albon*, Ricciardo*, Gasly, Bottas, Zhou*, Russell |
| 4 | Ocon |
[1] For example, I removed Oscar Piastri’s lap 38, as he went into the gravel and lost at least 5 seconds. Albon lap 56, Ricciardo lap 53 and Gasly lap 16 also looked suspect, but I was unable to find any evidence of a major mistake, so these laps were left in.
[2] I only count a stint if a driver has completed five or more laps, to avoid short stints for fastest lap attempts skewing the data on the table. This has led to the official first stints of Albon, Ricciardo and Zhou not being included in the table, though this is represented through the labeling of their stints as 1st/2nd and 2nd/3rd
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