This article is part of a series of articles I will be completing throughout the year, where I am going to analyze the average pace of the drivers and teams, in both qualifying and the races, to be able to gain a picture of performance levels.
I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. One caveat that arises, is that the top 10 drivers, through progressing to the final qualifying session, have a better track condition that those who only took part in Q1 or Q2. Due to this, the gap will be larger for the drivers outside the top ten than if qualifying was performed in one representative session. However, since the final session represents the point at which the top drivers are truly pushing, I’ve ruled it a better grounding point for the true limit of the cars, rather than only focusing on the first qualifying session in which the best times are not recorded.
Qualifying Pace-
With no further ado, here are the gaps to pole:
Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their fastest lap times set in the same session, so if one driver got into Q3, whilst the other only got into Q2, then I would count their Q2 times. Additionally, the lap times have to be representative, to avoid comparing out laps completed before a driver breaks down, as this would give us a very inaccurate representation of the drivers’ pace:
Race Pace-
Next up in our data sets is the race pace of the drivers. I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing first laps, in-laps, out-laps and virtual safety car laps, as all these all not representative of a driver’s general pace. Additionally, if a driver has a spin, or another error that would greatly reduce their lap time, I have not counted these laps, as they would also not be representative of a drivers’ general pace. I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the race distance ((which for Japan, excludes Alexander Albon, Daniel Ricciardo and Zhou Guanyu) so to not skew the season long averages against drivers that did not drive on low fuel with the best track conditions.
As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be taken into account in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally, the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.[2]
Analysis:
- It is more difficult to directly compare drivers’ race pace than in previous races this season, due to the large variety of tyre strategies and stint lengths.
- Leclerc had an amazing race, showing consistent pace and tyre management to be the only driver other than Magnussen to pull off an effective one-stop. Whilst not being as fast on average as his teammate as a result, Leclerc showed off how Ferrari has seemingly fixed their tyre woes and have provided their drivers a car that has strategic flexibility.
- Both Mercedes drivers were incredibly close to each other throughout the race. Whilst Lewis was a little slower in the first stint due to damage, he then proceeded to be a little faster than George in the next two stints.
- McLaren really messed up Lando Norris’ strategy in this race. Despite stopping Norris on his medium stint earlier than any other driver, the team still felt the need to stop at the same time as Leclerc for the final stint. As Norris was already behind the one-stopping Leclerc and went onto the same tyres, it was virtually impossible for him to finish ahead of Leclerc after that decision. A tyre offset is generally needed to make overtakes in Suzuka, so McLaren should have stopped Norris later and attempted to reclaim fourth place.
- I have no idea what was going on with Lance Stroll’s race. His stint lengths and tyre degradation were particularly poor, only recording eight valid laps on his medium stint. Looking at the data and how fast Stroll’s tyres were degrading is concerning. Unless it comes out that his tyres were mistakenly made of Swiss cheese, Lance has really got to work on this element of his race craft to ensure never repeating a performance like this. Whilst his teammate’s stints were up there with the McLaren and Mercedes’, Lance’s were comparable to the Alpine drivers, who had the slowest car.
Further Resources-
Qualifying Pace:
| Driver | Fastest Qualifying Time |
| Max Verstappen | 88.197 (0%) |
| Sergio Perez | 88.263 (+0.075%) |
| Lando Norris | 88.489 (+0.331%) |
| Carlos Sainz | 88.682 (+0.550%) |
| Fernando Alonso | 88.686 (+0.554%) |
| Oscar Piastri | 88.76 (+0.638%) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 88.766 (+0.645%) |
| Charles Leclerc | 88.786 (+0.668%) |
| George Russell | 89.008 (+0.920%) |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 89.413 (+1.379%) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 89.472 (+1.446%) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 89.494 (+1.471%) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 89.593 (+1.583%) |
| Alexander Albon | 89.714 (+1.720%) |
| Esteban Ocon | 89.811 (+1.830%) |
| Lance Stroll | 90.024 (+2.071%) |
| Pierre Gasly | 90.119 (+2.179%) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 90.131 (+2.193%) |
| Logan Sargeant | 90.139 (+2.202%) |
| Zhou Guanyu | 90.143 (+2.206%) |
Average Race Pace:
| Driver | Pace |
| Max Verstappen | 96.028 (0%) |
| Sergio Perez | 96.309 (+0.293%) |
| Carlos Sainz | 96.441 (+0.430%) |
| Lando Norris | 96.579 (+0.574%) |
| Oscar Piastri | 96.908 (+0.916%) |
| Fernando Alonso | 96.91 (+0.919%) |
| Charles Leclerc | 96.921 (+0.929%) |
| George Russell | 96.943 (+0.952%) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 97.002 (+1.014%) |
| Lance Stroll | 97.715 (+1.756%) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 97.91 (+1.960%) |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 97.916 (+1.966%) |
| Logan Sargeant | 97.937 (+1.988%) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 98.161 (+2.221%) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 98.596 (+2.674%) |
| Esteban Ocon | 98.743 (+2.827%) |
| Pierre Gasly | 98.928 (+3.020%) |
All Stints:
| Best Stints | Pace |
| Sainz 3rd (16L/NH) | 94.726 |
| Verstappen 3rd (18L/NH) | 94.727 |
| Hamilton 3rd (13L/UM) | 94.822 |
| Perez 3rd (19L/NH) | 94.92 |
| Russell 3rd (15L/UM) | 95.206 |
| Sargeant 4th (10L/NS) | 95.671 |
| Alonso 3rd (19L/NH) | 95.779 |
| Piastri 3rd (20L/NH) | 95.798 |
| Leclerc 2nd (26L/NH) | 95.889 |
| Norris 3rd (26L/NH) | 95.941 |
| Sargeant 3rd (5L/NM) | 96.056 |
| Hulkenberg 2nd/3rd (18L/NH) | 96.185 |
| Hamilton 2nd (14L/NH) | 96.387 |
| Russell 2nd (13L/NH) | 96.475 |
| Verstappen 2nd (16L/NM) | 96.523 |
| Stroll 4th (17L/NS) | 96.644 |
| Sainz 2nd (19L/UM) | 97.036 |
| Perez 2nd (16L/NM) | 97.039 |
| Norris 2nd (13L/NH) | 97.298 |
| Verstappen 1st (12L/NM) | 97.321 |
| Tsunoda 2nd/3rd (29L/NH) | 97.346 |
| Alonso 2nd (18L/NM) | 97.401 |
| Piastri 2nd (18L/NH) | 97.506 |
| Stroll 3rd (10L/NH) | 97.591 |
| Ocon 3rd (18L/NM) | 97.416 |
| Norris 1st (7L/NM) | 97.614 |
| Perez 1st (11L/NM) | 97.648 |
| Gasly 3rd (19L/NH) | 97.682 |
| Sargeant 2nd (10L/NH) | 97.754 |
| Magnussen 2nd (29L/NH) | 97.827 |
| Bottas 2nd/3rd (29L/NH) | 97.829 |
| Sainz 1st (11L/NM) | 97.909 |
| Leclerc 1st (22L/NM) | 98.14 |
| Alonso 1st (9L/NS) | 98.318 |
| Piastri 1st (8L/NM) | 98.334 |
| Ocon 2nd (12L/NH) | 98.593 |
| Russell 1st (18L/NH) | 98.727 |
| Bottas 1st/2nd (14L/NH) | 98.749 |
| Stroll 2nd (8L/NM) | 98.849 |
| Gasly 2nd (14L/NM) | 98.877 |
| Tsunoda 1st/2nd (13L/NH) | 98.897 |
| Hamilton 1st (19L/NH) | 98.948 |
| Hulkenberg 1st/2nd (26L/NH) | 99.01 |
| Stroll 1st (8L/NS) | 99.012 |
| Sargeant 1st (18L/NH) | 99.82 |
| Magnussen 1st (18L/NM) | 99.836 |
| Ocon 1st (15L/NH) | 100.457 |
| Gasly 1st (12L/NH) | 100.961 |
Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NH= New Hards, UM= Used Mediums, NM= New Mediums, NS= New Softs
Number of Stints:
| Number of Stints | Drivers |
| 2 | Leclerc, Magnussen, Bottas*, Hulkenberg*, Tsunoda* |
| 3 | Verstappen, Perez, Sainz, Norris, Alonso, Russell, Piastri, Hamilton, Ocon, Gasly, Bottas*, Hulkenberg*, Tsunoda* |
| 4 | Stroll, Sargeant |
[1] I only count a stint if a driver has completed five or more laps, to avoid short stints for fastest lap attempts skewing the data on the table. This has led to the official first stints of Tsunoda, Bottas and Hulkenberg (who only recorded one valid lap in his first stint) not being included in the table, though this is represented through the labeling of their stints as 1st/2nd and 2nd/3rd
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