Category: F1 Livery Reveals

In Memorian of Carlos Sainz

Feb 26th, 2024

Note: This article uses the Teammate Performance Index I created, for more information see Introducing The Teammate Performance Index

I originally planned to write this post after seeing some murmuring on Carlos Sainz possibly losing his seat on Twitter. I wanted to show how Carlos did not deserve to lose his seat, by comparing his results to Charles Leclerc’s over the past three seasons. Leclerc, in my opinion, is one of the rising stars of F1 and will almost certainly be a world champion. Other than Verstappen, he is the most exciting young driver in the sport. Yet, Sainz has compared reasonably well to Leclerc, more than most people were expecting. Yet, Sainz did lose his seat. He did not deserve it, but can take some solace to the fact that he only lost his seat to F1’s statistically most successful and marketable driver. But, this article is not about Sainz’s replacement, this is to pay tribute to the fantastic job Carlos has done. So, with no ado, Sainz’s scores on the Teammate Performance Index.

	Leclerc	Sainz
Wins	3	2
Poles	16	5
Podiums	18	16
Points (Excl. Sprints+FL)	632	567.5
Point Positions	53	54
Qualifying H2H	43	23
Race H2H	39	27
DNF/S/Q’s	10	9
Fastest Laps	3	2
Championships	0	0

And converted to percentage.

%	Leclerc	Sainz
Wins	60%	40%
Poles	76.19%	23.81%
Podiums	52.94%	47.06%
Points (Excl. Sprints+FL)	52.69%	47.31%
Point Positions	49.53%	50.47%
Qualifying H2H	65.15%	34.85%
Race H2H	59.09%	40.91%
DNF/S/Q’s [Flipped]	47.37%	52.63%
Fastest Laps	60%	40%
Championships	50%	50%
Average	57%	43%

Sainz scores reasonably well against Leclerc. Whilst Leclerc has a clear speed advantage, as shown by his domination of Sainz in the pole statistics and qualifying head to heads, on every other measure, Sainz performs with 40% or higher. He has finished in the points more times than Leclerc and has scored 47% of Ferrari’s points over the time. Sainz’s overall average is 43%, far higher than a typical No. 2 driver.[1] This score firmly places Sainz into the category of an equal first driver.

By way of comparison, Leclerc’s first teammate, Sebastian Vettel, was a four-time world champion. Whilst past his prime by the time Leclerc was his teammate, Vettel was still considered one of the strongest F1 drivers, having taken ten wins in the previous two seasons and even seeming like a championship contender for the first half of both seasons. Yet, when Leclerc became Vettel’s teammate, he found himself humbled, as is shown by the statistics.

	Leclerc	Vettel
Wins	2	1
Poles	7	2
Podiums	12	10
Points (Excl. Sprints+FL)	358	271
Point Positions	28	23
Qualifying H2H	25	13
Race H2H	21	17
DNF/S/Q’s	7	5
Fastest Laps	4	2
Championships	0	0

Or in percentage terms.

%	Leclerc	Vettel
Wins	66.67%	33.33%
Poles	77.78%	22.22%
Podiums	54.55%	45.45%
Points (Excl. Sprints+FL)	56.92%	43.08%
Point Positions	54.90%	45.10%
Qualifying H2H	65.79%	34.21%
Race H2H	55.26%	44.74%
DNF/S/Q’s [Flipped]	41.67%	58.33%
Fastest Laps	66.67%	33.33%
Championships	50%	50%
Average	59.03%	40.97%

Vettel performed worse against Leclerc than Sainz on most metrics. Leclerc dominated Vettel in qualifying slightly more than he did to Sainz, but Vettel also falls back on points, only receiving 45% of the team’s points. Whilst slightly outperforming Sainz in race head-to-heads, Vettel had far more peaks and troughs than Leclerc. Vettel also faced a Leclerc who was new to Ferrari and had only spent one previous season in F1, whilst Sainz entered a Ferrari seen by many as Leclerc’s team. Yet, Vettel’s average was 41%, still less than Sainz would achieve.

Yet, Sainz is now embarking upon his final season with Ferrari. Their car looks beautiful and if testing is to be believed, it seems fast as well. Ferrari should count themselves lucky that they have two drivers performing at a similar level. If their gamble to sign Hamilton does not pay off, they may regret dropping Sainz in the future, especially if he ends up in a rival team. Because other teams are looking at the same statistics that we are and recognize that Sainz is incredibly talented. Be it Audi, Mercedes or Red Bull, they should all heavily consider signing Carlos.

[1] I am currently engaged in data collection for F1’s no 2s, expect to see that article in a month or so, but rest assured, most have far worse statistical results than Sainz.

Alpine-Renault: A Brief History of F1’s Most Consistently Inconsistent Team

Feb 22nd, 2024

I appear to be the only person in the world who likes the new Alpine livery. In my opinion, it’s an improvement on the previous design, as I thought that the pink and blue clashed too much. By minimizing those colours and making black the dominant colour on the livery, it feels sleeker to me. Yet most fans were disappointed with the livery. The primary reason is that carbon fiber is being overused to save weight on current F1 cars. Removing colour from a livery when every other team is also doing that frustrates people, leading to calls for rules to be introduced to prevent the practice.[1]

Yet, I suspect a second factor helps explain why the reaction to Alpine’s livery seemed the most negative. Since buying Lotus in 2015, Renault have failed to meet the targets that they set, been involved in unnecessary drama and are unable to maintain consistency between seasons. Assessing Renault’s performances and dramas over years shows a team seemingly in constant disarray.

2016:

Renault reentered F1 in 2016 with ambition. Taking over the Lotus team that they had previously sold, the team announced that they were embarking upon a ‘five-year plan’, with senior officials expressing that they would expand their operations to challenge for podiums by 2018 and the title by 2020.[2] However, by inheriting a team that needed to be rebuilt, 2016 was always going to be a difficult year for Renault. Both drivers never qualified in the top ten and the team finished 9^th, only ahead of Sauber and Manor. The only particular highlight of the year was Kevin Magnussen’s impressive drive from 17^th to 7^th at the Russian Grand Prix, defending from a train of faster cars in the process.[3] Whilst Renault developed the car somewhat at the start of the season, by the middle of the year they had shifted their focus to the 2017 aero rules, Renault boss Cyril Abiteboul remaining hopeful that with an improved aero department, their five year plan was still on track to achieve success.[4]

2017:

2017 was a much more positive year for Renault. New driver Nico Hulkenberg regularly qualified in the top ten and finished the British, Belgian and Abu Dhabi grand prix as best of the rest.[5] The team were making progress, jumping from 9^th to 6^th in the championship. Yet, Hulkenberg’s teammate, Jolyon Palmer, had a horrific year, only finishing in the points once. This led to Palmer being dropped before the season finished, to be replaced by Carlos Sainz, who had already been signed for 2018.[6] Whilst this may have seemed a smart move to secure 6^th in the championship, it is also an early hint of a problem that would haunt Renault in later years, their ability to mismanage and disrespect their drivers.

Regardless, at the time, it appeared that the five-year plan was on track. 2018 could prove an important year for the team, as it would test their ability to make good on their promises, challenge for podiums and reach the top of the midfield.

2018:

2018 was a year of mixed fortunes for Renault. They achieved their ambition of being top of the midfield and attracted Daniel Ricciardo, then considered one of the best drivers in F1, to drive for them in 2019.[7] Both drivers regularly finished in the points, with Hulkenberg finishing best of the rest in six races, with Sainz also doing so at the season finale at Abu Dhabi. Yet, whilst representing steady progress, the team did not get anywhere close to their stated ambition of podiums in 2018, in fact only finishing in the top five twice.[8] Thus, whilst in his article for The Race Edd Straw argues that the plan appeared to be on course, evidence he provides contradicts this, with former chief technical officer Bob Bell sounding the alarm that five years was the minimum and that it may take longer for Renault to challenge.[9]

The plan had been somewhat disrupted. Yet, with a top driver joining the team, hopes were high that progress could be made. The worst thing Renault could do at this point would be to move backwards.

2019:

In 2019, Renault moved backwards, from 4^th to 5^th in the championship. Whilst they received 122 points in the previous year, in 2019 they fell to 91. Whilst the team placed their hope in a series of upgrades introduced at the French GP, these failed to make a notable improvement in performance. Once this had happened, it was recognized that the plan was not on track, leading to a reshuffle, wherein Dirk de Beer was hired as head of aerodynamics and Pat Fry was hired for his engineering expertise.[10] No podiums were achieved in the year and points finishes proved irregular. However, the team did have a day-of-days at the 2019 Italian Grand Prix. The team finished 4^th and 5^th that day, beating the Red Bulls on pace and Ricciardo only finished ten seconds behind Lewis Hamilton in 3^rd. This was Renault’s best performance since reentering F1 in 2016. This at least was a sign that Renault were improving, holding out hope that they may start to challenge for podiums soon.

2020:

By 2020, few held hope that Renault could challenge for the title. The Formula One website ranked Renault only 5^th in their pre-season rankings after testing.[11] And between testing and the season opener, Daniel Ricciardo decided to sign with McLaren for 2021. This gravely upset the higher ups at Renault, with team boss Cyril Abiteboul consistently stating that Ricciardo owed the team his loyalty.[12] Abiteboul even dramatized this saga, appearing on Drive to Survive painting Ricciardo as the villain, who had a commitment to stay with Renault and had broken that commitment. This is despite the fact that Ricciardo only signed with Renault for two years. So contractually, he owed Renault nothing. Cyril came across like a desperate boyfriend who could not accept that he was being broken up with. Furthermore, this attitude towards their drivers did not only affect Cyril, as would become apparent in 2022.

All the drama distracts from the fact that Renault had a comparatively fantastic 2020. Whilst still finishing 5^th, they were far more competitive than the previous year, challenging for 3^rd in the championship to season’s end. The team finished in the top five nine times and finally achieved podiums, two years behind schedule. Two 3^rd places for Ricciardo and a career-best 2^nd place in the penultimate race for Esteban Ocon provided hope that the team would continue to improve. With two-time world champion Fernando Alonso coming on board, Renault had signed one of the strongest drivers in F1. With a rebrand to becoming the Alpine F1 team, the absolute worst thing the team could do would be to make another unrealistic plan.

2021:

Alpine’s 2021 began with the announcement that long-term team boss Cyril Abiteboul had departed the team. Along with this announcement came the appointment of Laurent Rossi as Alpine’s new CEO.[13] Unfortunately, Rossi had not learned from mistakes made under the previous regime. He decided to announce that Alpine had a 100-race plan ‘that places us on the podium as many times as possible in 2024. From today in fifth, you can easily find a roadmap.’[14] Rossi set a target of season-by-season improvement, which would later come to be his undoing when this target did not materialize.[15]

2021 itself was a year of mixed fortunes for Alpine. They were not as competitive as they had been in the previous season, with Ferrari and McLaren delivering faster cars that allowed them, not Alpine, to fight for 3^rd. However, the team delivered upon a shock win at the 2021 Hungarian Grand Prix, their finest moment since reentering F1. After lining up in eighth, a series of unfortunate collisions and a strategy error from Mercedes left Esteban Ocon in the lead. Under pressure from Sebastian Vettel all race, Ocon controlled the race at the front and made no costly errors. Yet, throughout the race, Lewis Hamilton had been charging from the back of the field and a win still looked possible. Unfortunately for him, Alpine had Fernando Alonso in between Hamilton and the race lead. Alonso, utilizing all his talent, made his car as wide as possible and defended on the edge, holding Hamilton up for nine laps. This solidified the race win for Ocon, proved Alpine had made an inspired choice when they signed Alonso and seemed to signal a brighter future for the team.

2022:

2022 appeared to be an hopeful year for Alpine in the first half. They came into the new regulations with a quick car, which Alonso used to contend for pole in Australia and Canada. Whilst not quite a top team, this appeared to many, for example Finley Crebolder of Planet F1, like Alpine’s 100-race plan was working.[16] Yet, performance is only one measure of running a successful F1 team and the events of the summer showed that Alpine lacked the managerial skills needed.

Fernando Alonso is one of the greatest drivers in the history of F1. Even in his 40s, he is still delivering at a sublime level. Any team that has Fernando as a driver should do their upmost to keep him happy. Unfortunately, Alpine learnt what happens when you don’t. Alonso had frequently expressed his desire to race for many more years in F1, yet Alpine were only willing to sign a 1+1-year deal with Alonso, with a view to transferring him to their sportscar programme.[17] This was because they saw their rookie driver, Oscar Piastri, as the team’s long-term future. Alonso, in response to what he saw as disrespect, signed for Aston Martin as soon as a seat became available. Yet, as the team had been certain that they would sign with Alonso for 2023, they were obliged to find Piastri an F1 seat earlier in the year. The only seat they were willing to loan him to was Williams, which Piastri found an unattractive prospect.[18] Therefore, when he became a free agent, Piastri signed with Alpine’s rival, McLaren. When Alonso then left the team, Alpine were left with no available driver. They then decided to announce that Piastri was driving for them without his permission, in what appeared to be an attempt to pressure Piastri into taking the seat.[19] This included the team boss, Otmar Szafnauer, walking in on Piastri in the simulator and announcing that he was driving for the team, in front of people who did not know Piastri’s contractual situation.[20] This led to Piastri having to publicly tweet that he was not driving for the team, which caused an internet firestorm.[21] This controversy have been worth it, if Alpine had a legal case to sign Piastri, yet when the case went to the Contract Recognition Board, they ruled that Piastri’s only valid F1 contract was with McLaren.[22] After the fact, Otmar Szafnauer showed that Cyril’s reaction to Ricciardo leaving reflects a wider cultural problem in the team of disrespect for their employees. Otmar in many interviews painted Piastri as disloyal, selfish and ungrateful, implying that he would regret his decision.[23] This entire situation embarrassed Alpine, who successfully managed to alienate two star-quality drivers and were shown to lack the maturity to manage a top F1 team.

2023:

When launching their car in 2023, Alpine were still following the 100-race plan. Otmar expressed a desire to improve in the standings and ‘be closer to third than fifth… even if we stay fourth, we’ve got to make progress.’[24] However, Alpine would finish the season in sixth, being leapfrogged by Aston Martin and McLaren, who both managed to become regular podium contenders. Tensions escalated throughout the year, as CEO Laurent Rossi described his team’s performance as amateurish, which came across as highly demotivating and yet another sign of disrespect towards employees of the team.[25] And by the end of the year, everyone associated with the 100-race plan was out of the team, including Rossi and Szafnauer, effectively leaving the plan abandoned.[26] Whilst 2023 was not all bad, as the team achieved two podiums, setting unrealistic goals once again backfired in the team’s face and led to another reshuffle.

Thus, Alpine enters 2024 afresh, with new leadership in the form of Bruno Famin. The early signs are hopeful, as Famin was clear in a conversation with Lawrence Barretto that he did not want to set specific targets as ‘sometimes in F1 you go two steps forward and one step backwards.’[27] Obviously, the team still has ambitions to get to the front of F1, they are the Renault works team, with a heritage of success in the 90s and 2000s. Yet, this quote presents some hope that the team have learnt from past failings, that the era of unrealistic plans has come to an end.

[1] Should F1 introduce new livery rule over increasing issue?, Ewan Gale, RacingNews365 (7 February 2024) https://racingnews365.com/should-f1-introduce-new-livery-rule-over-increasing-issue

[2] Bob Bell: Renault’s rebuild means F1 title in five years is “not unrealistic”, Motorsport.com (23 August 2016) https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/bob-bell-renaults-rebuild-means-f1-title-in-five-years-is-not-unrealistic/3221283/; Renault halts 2016 F1 car development, Jonathan Noble, Motorsport.com (21 July 2016) https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/renault-halts-2016-f1-car-development-800573/800573/

[3] F1: Russian Grand Prix – as it happened, Tom Davies, The Guardian (1 May 2016) https://web.archive.org/web/20160504180816/http://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2016/may/01/f1-russian-grand-prix-live

[4] Renault halts 2016 F1 car development https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/renault-halts-2016-f1-car-development-800573/800573/

[5] In 2017/18/19, best of the rest refers to the highest finishing driver outside of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull.

[6] Jolyon Palmer out at Renault, Carlos Sainz in, after Japanese GP, Jonathan Green & James Galloway, Sky Sports F1 (8 October 2017) https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/11070504/jolyon-palmer-out-at-renault-carlos-sainz-in-after-japanese-gp

[7] Ricciardo to join Hulkenberg at Renault for 2019 (3 August 2018) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headlines/2018/8/ricciardo-joins-hulkenberg-at-renault-in-2019.html

[8] Renault halts 2016 F1 car development https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/renault-halts-2016-f1-car-development-800573/800573/; Bob Bell: Renault’s rebuild means F1 title in five years is “not unrealistic” https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/bob-bell-renaults-rebuild-means-f1-title-in-five-years-is-not-unrealistic/3221283/

[9] Why Renault’s Five-Year F1 Plan Failed, Edd Straw, The Race (21 October 2020) https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/why-renaults-five-year-f1-plan-failed/

[10] Failed French Grand Prix upgrade triggered Renault F1 reshuffle, Jonathan Noble, Autosport (14 November 2019) https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/failed-french-grand-prix-upgrade-triggered-renault-f1-reshuffle-4985837/4985837/

[11] F1 POWER RANKINGS: From 10 to 1 – revisiting how we ranked the teams after winter testing (30 June 2020) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.f1-power-rankings-from-10-to-1-revisiting-how-we-ranked-the-teams-after.3NhOSQN07l1E1b90evIyo5.html

[12] ‘Unity and commitment are critical’ say Renault as Ricciardo split announced (14 May 2020) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.unity-and-commitment-are-critical-say-renault-as-ricciardo-split-announced.2Lcj1J7kTz0c85fGXG3KBC.html

[13] Cyril Abiteboul leaves Renault and will not lead Alpine F1 team, Matt Morlidge, Sky Sports F1 (12 January 2021) https://skysports.com/f1/news/12433/12185143/cyril-abiteboul-leaving-renault-and-will-not-lead-alpine-f1-team

[14] ‘It’s a 100-race project’ – CEO Laurent Rossi outlines Alpine’s roadmap to reach the summit of F1 (16 October 2021) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.its-a-100-race-project-ceo-laurent-rossi-outlines-alpines-roadmap-to-reach.2TA0a4d491WWAjbuzsDTzw.html

[15] It’s a 100-race project’ – CEO Laurent Rossi outlines Alpine’s roadmap to reach the summit of F1 https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.its-a-100-race-project-ceo-laurent-rossi-outlines-alpines-roadmap-to-reach.2TA0a4d491WWAjbuzsDTzw.html

[16] With Alpine, Renault’s plans finally seem to be on track, Finley Crebolder, Planet F1 (14 July 2022) https://www.planetf1.com/features/alpine-renault-plans-finally-on-track

[17] ANALYSIS: Why Alonso accepted Aston Martin’s advances and signed a shock deal – and why it could be a perfect match, Lawrence Barretto (1 August 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.analysis-why-alonso-accepted-aston-martins-advances-and-signed-a-shock-deal.2hSAZ2QtgVtuEJa4chM7c4.html

[18] Piastri’s Not a Villain- Trust and Loyalty go Both Ways, Scott Mitchell-Malm, The Race (1 September 2022) https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/piastris-not-a-villain-trust-and-loyalty-go-both-ways/

[19] Piastri’s Not a Villain- Trust and Loyalty go Both Ways https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/piastris-not-a-villain-trust-and-loyalty-go-both-ways/

[20] Oscar Piastri: New McLaren signing opens up on ‘bizarre and upsetting’ Alpine F1 exit and team behaviour, Matt Morlidge, Sky Sports F1 (3 September 2022) https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/12688414/oscar-piastri-new-mclaren-signing-opens-up-on-bizarre-and-upsetting-alpine-f1-exit-and-team-behaviour

[21] https://twitter.com/OscarPiastri/status/1554527452231262210?lang=en

[22] Piastri to race for McLaren in 2023 following CRB decision (2 September 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-piastri-to-race-for-mclaren-in-2023-following-crb-decision.6jDE57LmqHCyrd7yKx1BLZ.html

[23] Alpine boss Szafnauer responds to CRB ruling and Piastri’s ‘bizarre and upsetting’ comments (3 September 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.alpine-boss-szafnauer-responds-to-crb-ruling-and-piastris-bizarre-and.ZXLvO8h9mqbUwzwVdsU3H.html, Alpine reopen Piastri wound with new jab: “Eliminate the loopholes…”, James Dielhenn, Crash.net (3 February 2023) https://www.crash.net/f1/news/1019808/1/alpine-reopen-piastri-wound-new-jab-eliminate-loopholes, Alpine chief predicts Oscar Piastri’s F1 career will “perish” after defecting to McLaren, Daniel Moxon, Daily Mirror (22 December 2022) https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/formula-1/oscar-piastri-mclaren-alpine-szafnauer-28798786

[24] Alpine unveils 2023 F1 challenger in London, Filip Cleeren, Autosport (16 February 2023) https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/alpine-unveils-2023-f1-challenger-in-london/10433120/#:~:text=Alpine’s%202023%20ambition%20is%20to,to%20third%20than%20to%20fifth%22.

[25] Alpine boss blasts F1 team’s performance as ‘amateurish’ at times, Jonathan Noble & Benjamin Vinel, Autosport (7 May 2023) https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/alpine-boss-blasts-f1-teams-performance-as-amateurish-at-times/10466340/

[26] Is Alpine’s 100-race F1 dream finally over? Brivio latest to leave Enstone, Cambridge Kisby, Motorsport Magazine (12 December 2023) https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/articles/single-seaters/f1/alpine-f1s-poisoned-chalice-szafnauer-latest-to-be-axed/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20Alpine%20CEO%20Laurent,title%2Dcontending%20outfit%20in%202024

[27] ANALYSIS: Alpine’s plan to avoid another lonely finish in the F1 constructors’ standings, Lawrence Barretto (8 February 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.analysis-alpines-plan-to-avoid-another-lonely-finish-in-the-f1-constructors.2WtNsRCq5rSNDnvFth6Tn1.html
We Need to Talk About the Stake F1 Team

Feb 7th, 2024

F1’s newest team has arrived, the Stake F1 Team. Sponsored by the gambling website Stake, the name instantly courted controversy, many noting that the team would have to change its name in countries with strict policies on gambling advertising.[1] Still, their international social media presence strides forward promoting the brand, utilizing their trademark colours on most of their posts, offering competitions and giveaways, all on an Instagram page with more than double the followers of the Stake page itself. This in-your-face advertising for gambling pushes against a recent trend in the UK, where widespread acknowledgement that gambling in sports is harmful is starting to emerge. Recent examples include Premier League teams being pressured to remove these adverts from the front of shirts by the 2026/27 season and banning betting ads during live sports broadcasts.[2] Yet, like in the 90s with tobacco advertising, F1 seems to be swimming against the current trend.[3] Thus, one of the ten faces of F1 is an online, cryptocurrency-based gambling company. The rest of this article will examine these three elements, cryptocurrency-based gambling, online gambling and gambling itself, to explain why this move is deeply problematic.

Firstly, cryptocurrency-based gambling is a terrible business model, even by the standards set by gambling companies. Whilst most reporting on the issue has characterized this form of gambling as being banned in the UK, the full picture is even more enlightening.[4] Whilst there is no specific law banning use of cryptocurrencies for gambling, any operator attempting to use them needs to prove that they comply with anti-money laundering and safe gambling measures.[5] However, as the value of cryptocurrencies fluctuates so much and are commonly linked to illegal activities ‘there have been no instances of licensed operators making this declaration [that they comply with Gambling Commission regulations] and accepting deposits directly in cryptoassets.’[6] They fundamentally break the rules of fair play, as customers have no guarantee that their winnings have any consistent value, meaning that these customers would essentially be gambling twice, on the gambling product itself and on the earnings from that product. Thus, when trying to access Stake from the UK, you are redirected to their UK website, which does not use cryptocurrency. Yet many people can find out how to use a VPN to bypass this. And whilst Stake’s terms ban the use of VPNs, Stake simultaneously sponsors articles that explain how to use a VPN to bypass security checks.[7] Furthermore, a recent report from The Observer found how easy it was to bypass these safeguards, utilizing a VPN to access their website and a picture of throat sweets as age verification.[8] For 48 hours, the reporters were able to illegally gamble, countering Stake’s claims that their safeguards were robust.[9] Additionally, when advertising for Everton, Stake used their international brand [rather than the UK website] on the front of player’s shirts and gave away free crypto giveaways to Everton fans.[10] This does not come across as a company genuinely concerned with following UK rules and regulations, providing primary evidence that Stake needs to be pushed out of sports advertising.

Secondly, whilst not illegal in the UK, I personally have a problem with the way online gambling creates a space that fuels addiction. Whilst the majority of people who gamble, both in-person and online, do so safely, there is evidence that online gambling increases problem-gambling. NHS statistics indicate that whilst 5.8% of those who had gambled in the past 12 months engaged in at-risk or problem gambling, this figure increases to 18.2% when solely focusing on online gambling.[11] This makes sense, as online gambling is far easier to access than traditional forms. If one were addicted to casino-based gambling, one would have to choose to get up, get changed, walk or drive to the casino, walk in the building, talk to multiple people, be visibly present gambling at that casino and then return home. In this process, there are a number of safeguards that loved ones can take to help the individual avoid addictive behavior. When traditionally gambling, there has to be a physical space to access, incentives to go to that place and people that have to be interacted with in order to participate in addictive behaviors. Loved ones can take measures to bar the individual from that space, remove incentives they see, find out the locations of casinos in the local area and provide support to prevent relapses. On the contrary, with online gambling, all one needs to do is access the internet and gamble their money away. It is far harder to regulate this space, due to the instantaneousness of the process, the wide variety of gambling options available and the speed in which a relapse can happen. Someone could wake up, open their phone, see an advertisement, click on it, play a few games and lose thousands of pounds, all before brushing their teeth. Whilst the government does not want to ban online gambling, partially due to fears that this would encourage a black market, I would concur that online gambling removes the geographic aspect that allows for potentially dangerous behaviors to be regulated.[12] I would further concur that if their was a widespread product that allowed for people to instantly access alcohol directly from their phone, with no physical limitations, there would be instant calls for this to be banned to protect those with alcohol addiction.[13] Whilst a slightly absurd hypothetical, this is essentially the space that online gambling allows gambling addicts to access. Because of this, I would personally be in favor of heavily regulating, if not banning, online gambling and believe that one of the first steps that needs to be taken is kicking online gambling advertisers out of sports.

Finally, gambling advertising in of itself is problematic. I arrived at this position through empathy with those who are impacted when they see this advertising, those with a history of addiction. Research varies on the extent to which problem gambling is prevalent in the UK, figures varying from 0.3%, to 0.7%, to 2.7%.[14] A minimum of 300,000 people in the UK are problem gamblers, with a further 1.8 million at risk.[15] For those who have struggled with gambling addiction, seeing advertising can be incredibly harmful and triggering to them.[16] I believe that people with a history of gambling problems should have a right to watch and enjoy sports without risk of triggers and relaspes. Whilst the gambling industry claims to take problem gambling seriously, 43.5% of money spent on gambling in the UK is at from at-risk or problem gambling, so I doubt the sincerity of these claims.[17] There is no easy solution to this problem, as when gambling exists, there will naturally be some advertising for it. But this in-your-face advertising across popular sports, on the shirts of football players, or all over an F1 car, has to be stopped. If not, those with a history of gambling addiction are being denied the right to watch their favorite sports, or risk relapsing.

So, for these reasons, one should not be surprised to know that I’ll be rooting against the Stake F1 Team. It is never my wish to be overtly negative, but when I see a car that is advertising so many pernicious ideas pull off the road and retire, I’ll feel relieved that I won’t have to see it for the rest of the race. Besides, their livery looks like if Ben 10 drove a Formula One car. Bold, at the very least, but I’m not a fan.

[1] Stake F1 Team’s Gambling Links Could Be Problematic, Saajan Jogia, Sports Illustrated (3 January 2024) https://www.si.com/fannation/racing/f1briefings/news/stake-f1-teams-gambling-links-could-be-problematic-sj4

[2] Premier League clubs agree to withdraw gambling sponsorships on front of shirts, Sky Sports (13 April 2023) https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12856367/premier-league-clubs-agree-to-withdraw-gambling-sponsorships-on-front-of-shirts; Children Unable to See Betting Ads During Live Sport, Betting and Gaming Council (11 September 2020) https://bettingandgamingcouncil.com/news/w2w-football

[3] Blair intervened over F1 tobacco ban exemption, documents show, Rachel Stevenson, The Guardian (12 October 2008) https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/oct/12/tonyblair-labour

[4] How UK gambling safeguards fail to defend online punters, Rob Davies & Matei Rosca, The Observer (1 October 2022) https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/01/uk-gambling-safeguards-no-match-for-online-bookie-stake-com; What’s at Stake? A crypto casino’s shady marketing tactics revealed, Matei Rosca, Reporter.London https://reporter.london/?p=490

[5] Policy Paper: High stakes: gambling reform for the digital age, Department for Culture, Media and Sport, Gov.UK (27 April 2023) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age

[6] High stakes: gambling reform for the digital age https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age

[7] What’s at Stake? A crypto casino’s shady marketing tactics revealed https://reporter.london/?p=490

[8] How UK gambling safeguards fail to defend online punters https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/01/uk-gambling-safeguards-no-match-for-online-bookie-stake-com

[9] How UK gambling safeguards fail to defend online punters https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/01/uk-gambling-safeguards-no-match-for-online-bookie-stake-com

[10] What’s at Stake? A crypto casino’s shady marketing tactics revealed https://reporter.london/?p=490

[11] Health Survey for England, 2021 Part 2: Gambling behaviour, NHS England (16 May 2023) https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england/2021-part-2/gambling#:~:text=According%20to%20their%20Problem%20Gambling,and%201.1%25%20of%20women

[12] High stakes: gambling reform for the digital age https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age

[13] More than merely ordering drinks from delivery services, which at least requires some human interaction through the deliveries, if alcohol was instantly available, this technology would likely face instant bans.

[14] Experts warn of £12.6bn scale of UK gambling problem, Paul McInnes, The Guardian (27 April 2017) https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/apr/27/12-billion-pounds-scale-uk-gambling-problem-experts-warn; UK gambling addiction much worse than thought, says survey, Rob Davies, The Guardian (19 May 2020) https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/19/uk-gambling-addiction-yougov-research; Health Survey for England, 2021 Part 2: Gambling behaviour https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england/2021-part-2/gambling#:~:text=According%20to%20their%20Problem%20Gambling,and%201.1%25%20of%20women

[15] High stakes: gambling reform for the digital age https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age

[16] High stakes: gambling reform for the digital age https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age

[17] High stakes: gambling reform for the digital age https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age/high-stakes-gambling-reform-for-the-digital-age
How Williams Turned Me Into an Alex Albon Fan

Feb 5th, 2024

I began watching F1 in 2020. At the time, I knew little about the sport and my opinions were underdeveloped. One example of which was my opinion on Alex Albon. Seeing him get dominated by Max Verstappen every weekend convinced me that he was not a very good F1 driver. When he was replaced by Sergio Perez, who had won a race in 2020, I thought that Red Bull had signed a far more competitive driver, as I had yet to truly appreciate just how good Max Verstappen was.

2021 helped adjust my views. Seeing Perez, a driver I was convinced was one of the best in the sport, be beaten by Verstappen as comprehensively as Albon was, began to make me believe that Albon was unlucky to have Max as a teammate. I was, therefore, glad to see that Albon got Williams drive in 2022 and appreciative that Red Bull were dedicated to finding him a seat in the sport.[1] However, I did not expect that two years later, I would be cheering Alex on every weekend, repping him in my F1 fantasy team and listening to podcasts featuring him.[2] Yet, thanks to his performances, level-headedness and personality, this is exactly what occurred.

Australia 2022:

Albon’s performance at the 2022 Australian Grand Prix piqued my interest. It was only his third race for Williams and he scored a point. After witnessing George Russell’s long saga of trying to get a point for Williams, which culminated in him crying on live TV after finally scoring, seeing Alex almost immediately get points was at the very least amusing.[3] I recall joking the next day that it was like Russell had taken the long slog to Mordor only for Albon to instantly use the eagles to get there. Yet, the manner in getting these first points was what particularly impressed me. After starting at the back, Albon proceeded to drive on one set of hard tyres for the entire race, only pitting on the last lap, overcutting many drivers in the process to finish tenth.[4] Managing a new specification of Pirelli tyres, only in their third race, after spending a year out from the sport, was highly impressive and showed that Albon’s talent was unfulfilled in his time at Red Bull. This drive earned him praise, with the team subsequently coining him the ‘tyre whisper’.[5] My soft spot for Albon emerged here and would only continue to grow.

Belgium 2022:

Later in the season, Albon’s Belgium performance impressed me. The Williams was the least competitive car in 2022 but had the advantage of great straight-line speed. The team used this to their advantage in Belgium by running an extremely low downforce setup, sacrificing speed in the corners to be quicker in a straight line.[6] Albon delivered on the car’s resulting one lap pace to start in sixth position in the race. Despite high tyre degradation on the Williams, Albon was able to utilize the car’s top speed to hold on, defending from a train of five faster cars towards the end of the race.[7] This showed that Albon was able utilize the good characteristics of the car to achieve points when possible, even if rarely. After a season of Williams continuing to struggle to score, this was a refreshing result.

Canada 2023:

In 2023, Williams had a more competitive car that was able to fight frequently in the midfield. Despite this, they were still last in the championship with one point after the Spanish Grand Prix.[8] Yet at the following round in Canada, Albon would achieve his best result at Williams yet. After topping second qualifying, after making a bold call to run on slick tyres on a drying track, Albon lined up in ninth for the race. Following an early safety car, the team pitted Alex, gambling on a one stop strategy. Whilst two stopping was faster in Canada, this would give Albon track position, but would require heavy tyre preservation and defensive driving. Alex had 58 laps to run on his tyres, one of the longest stints in the race. The two-stoppers began rapidly closing in on Alex throughout the race.[9] Consequently, a train of seven faster cars caught Alex, who had to defend for over 20 laps. Yet as he did in Belgium, Alex was able to make this Herculean task look easy. A combination of great strategy, tyre whispering, a daring defense and self-confidence, earned Alex the driver of the day vote from F1 fans.[10] Even more importantly, this was the drive that truly cemented me as an Alex Albon fan.

From his performance in Canada, the points came flooding throughout the rest of the season, as Albon singlehandedly catapulted Williams to seventh in the championship. Highlights included beating both Ferraris to eighth in Silverstone, qualifying fourth in the Netherlands (and then overcoming a bad strategy to finish the race in seventh) and qualifying sixth and finishing seventh in Italy. In one of F1’s more predictable seasons, Albon provided most of the entertainment and was one of the most impressive drivers in the field. Now, on to Albon’s third year with Williams. The livery released today is fine, though it merely seems like a pallet swap of last year’s livery, which itself was solid, if unspectacular. But even if one hates this livery, there is little doubt that Albon will drive it to its maximum potential, hopefully towards the podium.

[1] Red Bull released Albon for Williams seat but has ‘future options’, Luke Smith, Motorsport.com (9 September 2021) https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/red-bull-released-albon-for-williams-f1-seat-but-has-future-options/6662711/

[2] For example a podcast I would really recommend is, Alex Albon Exclusive: “I’m Ready To Win Championships”, High Performance, Youtube (27 November 2023) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ewi3HrvSPKw

[3] Emotional George Russell reacts to scoring first Williams points in Hungary!, Sky Sports F1, Youtube (2 August 2021) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9ZwP4j_fHY

[4] Albon says P10 finish was ‘unimaginable’ before pulling off inspired strategy in Australia (11 April 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.albon-says-p10-finish-was-unimaginable-before-pulling-off-inspired-strategy.23jsj951dn4F9raD9uoJ7I.html

[5] Albon proves a point by scoring them with Williams, Alex Baldwin, Reuters (25 May 2022) https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/albon-proves-point-by-scoring-them-with-williams-2022-05-25/

[6] Spa analysis: Five key factors in Alex Albon’s P10 finish, Williams Racing (29 August 2022) https://www.williamsf1.com/posts/0c9ba742-836b-4328-9c55-0851d19f0e64/spa-analysis-five-key-factors-in-alex-albon-p10

[7] Albon says he was ‘holding on for dear life’ to score final point in Belgium, (30 August 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.albon-says-he-was-holding-on-for-dear-life-to-score-final-point-in-belgium.6KKqsElu3Px3dxB9usg47M.html

[8] Stats F1 https://www.statsf1.com/en/2023/espagne/championnat.aspx

[9] STRATEGY UNPACKED: How Albon beat a host of faster cars in Canada to seal Williams’ best result for 2 years, Bernie Collins (20 June 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.strategy-unpacked-how-albon-beat-a-host-of-faster-cars-in-canada-to-seal.5y9R94fw5GfDDe5aTnl2mY.html

[10] Albon gets Driver of the Day with defensive masterclass, Reuters (18 June 2023) https://www.reuters.com/sports/motor-sports/albon-gets-driver-day-with-defensive-masterclass-2023-06-18/#:~:text=MONTREAL%2C%20June%2018%20(Reuters),Canadian%20Grand%20Prix%20on%20Sunday.
Haas- Or When An F1 Team Owner Appears to Have No Idea What’s Going On

Feb 2nd, 2024

Haas have announced their livery today, evidently the most important news going on in F1 in the past few days. The livery itself is fine, like every Haas livery, it features a relatively bland but effective colour scheme. The position of logos on the front nose did stand out to me as well done, as they were notable enough to make me look at the logos, yet also not intrusive enough to clash with the livery. However, indications are that the performance of Haas may be all but fine.

Recent conversations have been focused on the surprise announcement that Team Principal Guenther Steiner was let go.[1] He has been replaced by former Trackside Engineering Director Ayao Komatsu. Komatsu has not been optimistic about the team’s short-term prospects, claiming that diverting resources to a late-season upgrade last year has put them on the backfoot.[2] In a recent interview, Komatsu said that he was ‘realistic with the car we’re putting out in Bahrain… Is it good enough? No.’[3] However, this pessimism seems to have not reached team owner Gene Haas. In his interview, Gene Haas said, ‘My biggest concern is when we go to Bahrain, we need to show up with a car that is ready to go.’[4] Despite characterizations that Komatsu got the job because he was willing to say whatever Gene wanted to hear, it appears that it took less than a week for the two to fundamentally contradict each other.[5] Whilst Komatsu has set realistic expectations, that the car needs development to compete, Gene Haas seems convinced that after the change in team principal, a change in the team’s fortunes should be on the horizon.

Which is indicative of the primary problem. Gene Haas appears to have little idea what is happening in the F1 team he owns.

This is a bold claim to make, with more evidence needed than two contradictory quotes. Further evidence is provided from the sacking of Guenther Steiner. The Race reported that the split occurred because Steiner believed that the team needed more capital investment, whilst Gene Haas believed that the team could compete, but was underperforming.[6] In a recent interview Steiner hinted that his and Gene’s views had diverged, stating that every other team has been using the opportunity the cost cap era presents to invest in the infrastructure of their teams.[7] Under the financial regulations, the teams are provided a Capital Expenditure allowance, which can be spent on developing facilities.[8] Every other F1 team realizes the importance of this. If a team invests successfully into upgrading their facilities, it will reduce costs the team will incur in developing their car. Thus, a team with better facilities can spend less money for the same results. The importance of capital expenditure spending is further highlighted by the recent decision to give extra boosts in the capital expenditure limit to the lower performing teams, providing Haas with an opportunity to develop their facilities faster than the larger teams.[9] Gene Haas, however, appears to not want the team to focus on investment. He claimed that the team’s primary problem was not spending money efficiently, specifically that their aero department is failing to let Haas’ cars achieve their potential.[10] There is some truth to this, as engineering can let Haas’ cars down. They have had a consistent problem, over multiple regulation sets, that the cars overheat the tyres and have higher degradation than the other teams. Haas could achieve more with a better engineering team. However, the last thing I would do if I believed that the engineering side of the team was letting the team down, would be to promote the Trackside Engineering Director to become the Team Principal. Yet this is exactly what Gene Haas did. This bizarre decision perfectly complements Gene’s indication that the team can either spend more efficiently in the short term or invest in the long term, rather than doing both. As every other F1 team has arrived at a different conclusion, this rather seems an excuse for Gene Haas to not invest more into his team.

Haas is in the rather unique position of having three sperate facilities. They have a factory in Banbury, a factory in Maranello and ‘a barely used but excellent ‘headquarters’ in the United States.’[11] Having three separate, distant facilities creates communication barriers within the team and can prevent a development of a singular clear vision, a vital element for any successful F1 team. Additionally, any team owner worried about the team spending their money efficiently should look at the heavily expensive facility that they barely use, yet Gene Haas declines to mention this in his interview.[12] Komatsu’s statements are even more disheartening, as whilst he recognizes that the team has fundamental issues with communication he states that they will always remain.[13] This heavily implies that, even if this issue has been bought up to him, Gene Haas is too dedicated to the three facility approach to consider a more compact way of running his team.

Gene Haas argued inn his interview that Haas’ partnership with Ferrari should be catapulting them further up in the F1 championship.[14] Haas buys and uses Ferrari hardware, Ferrari software and Ferrari engines and has a technical partnership with the team. Whilst I don’t doubt that Haas’ partnership with Ferrari improves their performance, having the right equipment does not make or break a team if they do not know how to use it. Ferrari’s hardware, software and engines are developed alongside Ferrari’s chassis and aero. Each single part of the car works in tandem to provide a clear vision and the maximum possible performance.[15] Haas, in comparison, have a chassis built by Dallara, yet another third party and a comparatively weak aero department. Thus, Haas has; as many parts as possible built by a third party, a chassis built by a third party, three separate facilities that cannot communicate effectively; an aero department that has to develop their aero around a car different people have made and a team boss that seems unwilling to invest. The more one reads into Haas’ business model, the more problems one finds. For Gene Haas to believe in the elements of a clearly flawed model beggars belief.

In conclusion, I have little hope for the Haas F1 team. It would be incredibly surprising to see the team finish higher than tenth, after reviewing all of these evident issues. Whilst other teams make mistakes, Haas is the only team in F1 that denies obvious investment opportunities to remain competitive, relies on outsourcing as their primary business model and has a team owner who seems unaware of the realities of competing in modern F1. In a week where an American team with a genuine desire to be competitive was rejected in F1, at least the growing American fanbase has a team finishing last to support.

[1] Guenther Steiner leaves role as Haas Team Principal with immediate effect as Ayao Komatsu promoted (10 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-guenther-steiner-leaves-haas-team-principal-ayao-komatsu.EoHIsZH1SbRkJMSKJ8h3I.html

[2] ‘I’m not trying to be Guenther Steiner’ – Ayao Komatsu on Haas’s new chapter and their targets for the future, Lawrence Barretto (17 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.ayao-komatsu-guenther-steiner-haas-team-principal-future.4OqNZMNtYAa1KaJXbTtRxr.html

[3] ‘I’m not trying to be Guenther Steiner’ – Ayao Komatsu on Haas’s new chapter and their targets for the future https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.ayao-komatsu-guenther-steiner-haas-team-principal-future.4OqNZMNtYAa1KaJXbTtRxr.html

[4] EXCLUSIVE: ‘It came down to performance’ – Gene Haas on Guenther Steiner’s departure and what it means for his team’s future, Lawrence Barretto (11 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.exclusive-gene-haas-guenther-steiner-departure-f1-team-future.3pt87IVfCzoOgJLV19Atf4.html

[5] The Disagreement Behind Steiner’s Shock Haas Split, The Race, Scott Mitchell-Mann (10 January 2024) https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/why-guenther-steiner-left-haas-f1-team/

[6] The Disagreement Behind Steiner’s Shock Haas Split, The Race https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/why-guenther-steiner-left-haas-f1-team/

[7] Guenther Steiner: Former Hass boss speaks out for first time on F1 exit and how it happened, Sky Sports (14 January 2024) https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/13047484/guenther-steiner-former-hass-boss-speaks-out-for-first-time-on-f1-exit-and-how-it-happened#:~:text=Asked%20if%20that%20was%20a,teams%20%2D%20invested%20in%20the%20infrastructure

[8] The 2021 F1 cost cap explained – what has changed, and why?, Lawrence Barretto (27 May 2020) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.the-2021-f1-cost-cap-explained-what-has-changed-and-why.5O1Te8udKLmkUl4PyVZtUJ.html

[9] Formula One’s bottom four teams each get $20 million CapEx boost, Reuters (6 October 2023) https://www.reuters.com/sports/motor-sports/formula-ones-bottom-four-teams-each-get-20-mln-capex-boost-2023-10-06/

[10] EXCLUSIVE: ‘It came down to performance’ – Gene Haas on Guenther Steiner’s departure and what it means for his team’s future https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.exclusive-gene-haas-guenther-steiner-departure-f1-team-future.3pt87IVfCzoOgJLV19Atf4.html

[11] The Disagreement Behind Steiner’s Shock Haas Split, The Race https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/why-guenther-steiner-left-haas-f1-team/

[12] EXCLUSIVE: ‘It came down to performance’ – Gene Haas on Guenther Steiner’s departure and what it means for his team’s future https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.exclusive-gene-haas-guenther-steiner-departure-f1-team-future.3pt87IVfCzoOgJLV19Atf4.html

[13] ‘I’m not trying to be Guenther Steiner’ – Ayao Komatsu on Haas’s new chapter and their targets for the future https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.ayao-komatsu-guenther-steiner-haas-team-principal-future.4OqNZMNtYAa1KaJXbTtRxr.html

[14] EXCLUSIVE: ‘It came down to performance’ – Gene Haas on Guenther Steiner’s departure and what it means for his team’s future https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.exclusive-gene-haas-guenther-steiner-departure-f1-team-future.3pt87IVfCzoOgJLV19Atf4.html

[15] At least, in comparison to Haas.
McLaren Scuppering My Plans May Not Be The Only Sign of 2024 Bullishness

Jan 21st, 2024

I had a pretty solid plan to lay a foundation for this blog. Find out when every team will release their livery and plan an article about a topic relating to that team, along with feedback on their livery. Unfortunately, ever the adept marketeers, McLaren surprised us all, by releasing their livery without giving me a forewarning.[1] The livery itself is beautiful. I have not been a fan of the last couple McLaren liveries, feeling that the light blue colours used fundamentally clashed with the papaya. Seeing the ‘Stealth’ livery last year, I saw it as having far more potential. It appears that the livery designer thought so as well, ditching the blue for a sleek, modern, orange and black colour scheme. Now their car has the intimidating look of a tiger, ready to hunt down and strike the opposition.

Not only does the team possess a fast looking livery, but there is optimism coming out of the team that the car may follow suit, with both McLaren CEO Zak Brown and Team Principal Andrea Stella feeling that Lando Norris may win his first race this year, though remaining cautious about the possibility of continuing Red Bull domination.[2] But, looking at McLaren’s development last season, there is reason to feel optimistic.

McLaren began last year abysmally, with Zak Brown admitting after the pre-season test that they had ‘set some goals for development which we didn’t hit.’[3] The team only scored points in three of the opening eight races, with a best result of 6^th in Australia. But in season developments proved strong, with Norris instantly impressing with a 4^th place finish in Austria. From thence, the team became a regular contender for podiums and even bagged a sprint race win in Qatar, thanks to their impressive rookie driver, Oscar Piastri. McLaren expect this development to continue, with Brown stating that ‘we’re feeling good about our development’ and Stella believing ‘when it comes to the wind tunnel development or CFD development we see that the gradient we established last year that led to the Austria development and then the Singapore development – it seems we can maintain it.’[4] Max Verstappen also seems phased by McLaren’s trajectory, implying in a recent podcast that he sees them as his greatest rivals next season.[5]

However, a short view to McLaren’s recent past tempers the all-encompassing hype they are receiving at present.

In 2021, McLaren had a solid season, with Lando becoming a regular podium finisher, spending the early part of the season fighting for third in the championship and Daniel Ricciardo winning McLaren’s first race since 2012. The team was, therefore, ambitious heading into the new rule cycle in 2022.[6] Whilst they believed that their return to the front was still a few years away, they hoped to continue achieving podiums, possibly wins and set a target to get more average points per race than in 2021.[7] Zak Brown was confident that the team he had built was ‘the team of people which will ultimately get us back to the front’ and after the first test in Barcelona, Ricciardo described it as ‘a pretty flawless three days for the team.’[8] It did not take long for this bullishness to fade, with McLaren ruing brake issues in the Bahrain pre-season test and after the first race the car was criticized by Ricciardo for being a ‘long way’ from the podium and lacking straight line speed.[9] Whilst not achieving as substantial a turnaround as they would in 2023, McLaren did develop, being near the top of the midfield by the year’s end. Whilst McLaren are perhaps more remembered last season for admitting to missing their targets, this admission only came after the Bahrain pre-season test, the exact same point where the problems arose in 2022. Before then, outgoing team boss Andrea Seidl expressed optimism that McLaren’s development path put them on track to begin to take the fight to the big teams in 2023 and Zak Brown stated at the car launch that ‘We learnt a lot [from 2022] which has been taken into the off-season as the entire team works hard to prepare for another year.[10] Yet despite this optimism, once preseason testing began last year, McLaren found themselves in an even worse position than in 2022.

Does this mean that I think McLaren will find themselves in the same position for the third year in a row? No, I find this unlikely. But I believe that fans need to hit the brakes on predictions of McLaren taking the fight to Red Bull or being the clear second-best team. Even in their season post-Austria, McLaren were capable of performance deficits, such as setting up their car with far too much downforce in Belgium, or being completely off the pace in Las Vegas.[11] Additionally, McLaren have a difficult car to drive, even when it’s fast, drivers find they constantly have to drive it on the limit, leading to mistakes being made more easily.[12] False dawns happen in F1 all the time and the short-term thinking that envisions immediate success for McLaren is the same thinking that led many fans to believing that Alonso would definitely get his 33^rd win last year. Whilst there are many factors, such as the lack in regulation changes, one of the best driver line ups in F1 or the impressive development McLaren made last year, that make it likely that McLaren will continue to rise, these same factors were present last year and the team initially fell back. Whilst there is hope for many McLaren fans, fans should not rule out Ferrari or Mercedes in being the team that gets closest to Red Bull next year. These teams have a recent proven track record of wins and success that McLaren doesn’t yet have. As much as all fans want to see this beautiful car fighting at the front, my reservation causes me to temper my hype, at least until predictions of success translate into poles and race wins. But if this tiger does get hunting, no doubt most fans want to see it chasing down a couple of bulls.

[1] McLaren become first F1 team to unveil 2024 look with new livery revealed (16 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.mclaren-new-livery-reveal-2024-f1-season.216OAbbqt6SWUjIio6GLqP.html

[2] ‘He is ready’: McLaren hopeful Lando Norris can claim first F1 win in 2024, Giles Richards, The Guardian (16 January 2024) https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/jan/16/he-is-ready-mclaren-hopeful-lando-norris-can-claim-first-f1-win-in-2024

[3] F1 team bosses reveal pecking order predictions as McLaren admit they’ve missed ‘projected targets’ (24 February 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.f1-team-bosses-reveal-pecking-order-predictions-as-mclaren-admit-theyve.6UlcuKUciwSzl6pngGid1q.html

[4] Brown sets clear McLaren target for start of 2024 as he says team are ‘feeling good about development’ (3 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.brown-sets-clear-mclaren-target-for-start-of-2024-as-he-says-team-are.3cFyWmIoyl99s0xLS5kbZP.html; ANALYSIS: As McLaren reveal their new livery, are they the team set to take the fight to Red Bull in 2024?, Lawrence Barretto (16 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.analysis-as-mclaren-reveal-their-new-livery-are-they-the-team-set-to-take.2AI3XI0SyxGIIzowJtYUzm.html

[5] Max and Checo Reflect On The 2023 F1 Season | Talking Bull (20 December 2023) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yj55KGOZcvM

[6] McLaren showcase bold new livery as they reveal 2022 challenger, the MCL36 (11 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-mclaren-showcase-bold-new-livery-as-they-reveal-2022-challenger-the.5etd9Tgo3ivFuzQIJFNt5r.html; ‘It’s definitely a big opportunity’ says Norris as McLaren reveal 2022-spec MCL36 (11 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.its-definitely-a-big-opportunity-says-norris-as-mclaren-reveal-2022-spec.6obJepiNy4cj0sKEZl270s.html

[7] Why McLaren are ambitious but realistic about 2022 prospects, Lawrence Barretto (11 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.why-mclaren-are-ambitious-but-realistic-about-2022-prospects.14JZh8h7sE2P6Xsd37J90M.html, This prediction was ultimately nowhere close to happening, with McLaren achieving an average of 7.2 points per race in 2022, compared to 12.5 in 2021.

[8] Why McLaren are ambitious but realistic about 2022 prospects https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.why-mclaren-are-ambitious-but-realistic-about-2022-prospects.14JZh8h7sE2P6Xsd37J90M.html This quote from Zak Brown doesn’t play well in hindsight, as only a year later, both Team Principal Andreas Seidl and Technical Director James Key had gone and McLaren committed to reshuffling their technical department; Ricciardo says McLaren executed a ‘pretty flawless’ pre-season programme in Spain (28 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.ricciardo-says-mclaren-executed-a-pretty-flawless-pre-season-programme-in.FoWfPSUqPS6NzlGOPwDIk.html

[9] Norris says brake problems have hampered McLaren in Bahrain testing – and warns ‘it’s not going to be an easy fix’ (11 March 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-says-brake-problem-has-hampered-mclaren-and-warns-its-not-going-to-be.439p3EASA6iWBBhLHysTQ2.html; ‘We don’t have a good enough car’ – McLaren drivers downbeat after point-less Bahrain GP showing (22 March 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.we-dont-have-a-good-enough-car-mclaren-drivers-downbeat-after-point-less.8dC2f5adzc7p6MLF3rUgK.html

[10] ‘I see a lot of positives’ – Seidl proud of McLaren’s progress in his final year in charge (16 December 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.i-see-a-lot-of-positives-seidl-proud-of-mclarens-progress-in-his-final-year.50x6QaAUzjBYCwYa7azzXi.html; FIRST LOOK: McLaren present vibrant-looking MCL60 to kick off 2023 anniversary year (13 February 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.first-look-mclaren-present-vibrant-looking-mcl60-to-kick-off-2023.5gnCsx6H01YFs97JlP4ax5.html

[11] ‘It was painful’ – Norris describes McLaren’s straight-line speed struggles after surprise P7 finish in Belgium (31 July 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.it-was-painful-norris-describes-mclarens-straight-line-speed-struggles-after.1d1xbX04BVyD5iXDr2FLBr.html; Norris labels Las Vegas qualifying a ‘reality check’ after double Q1 exit for McLaren (18 November 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-labels-las-vegas-qualifying-a-reality-check-after-double-q1-exit-for.6LiN0GbBk5qWJD3UN8WNqJ.html

[12] Norris says he understands ‘certain parts’ of Ricciardo’s struggles with McLaren in 2022 (15 July 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-says-he-understands-certain-parts-of-ricciardos-struggles-with.646UD3WYQxUGdH66c6k6p0.html; Norris admits MCL36 is ‘unsuited’ to his driving style, but eyes long-term success with McLaren (22 September 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-admits-mcl36-is-unsuited-to-his-driving-style-but-eyes-long-term.2EkbfuEMtuRjuQbqeu1ncF.html, These consistent struggles, expressed by drivers like Norris, Sainz and Ricciardo, perhaps help to explain the crucial mistakes made in a few qualifying sessions by Lando last year, at races where it was possible to challenge for the win. If drivers are provided with a car that is difficult to drive on the limit, they will naturally make more mistakes, even if they are incredibly talented.

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