Category: Japanese Grand Prix 2024

Pace and Analysis- Japanese Grand Prix 2024

Apr 20th, 2024

This article is part of a series of articles I will be completing throughout the year, where I am going to analyze the average pace of the drivers and teams, in both qualifying and the races, to be able to gain a picture of performance levels.

I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. One caveat that arises, is that the top 10 drivers, through progressing to the final qualifying session, have a better track condition that those who only took part in Q1 or Q2. Due to this, the gap will be larger for the drivers outside the top ten than if qualifying was performed in one representative session. However, since the final session represents the point at which the top drivers are truly pushing, I’ve ruled it a better grounding point for the true limit of the cars, rather than only focusing on the first qualifying session in which the best times are not recorded.

Qualifying Pace-

With no further ado, here are the gaps to pole:

Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their fastest lap times set in the same session, so if one driver got into Q3, whilst the other only got into Q2, then I would count their Q2 times. Additionally, the lap times have to be representative, to avoid comparing out laps completed before a driver breaks down, as this would give us a very inaccurate representation of the drivers’ pace:

Race Pace-

Next up in our data sets is the race pace of the drivers. I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing first laps, in-laps, out-laps and virtual safety car laps, as all these all not representative of a driver’s general pace. Additionally, if a driver has a spin, or another error that would greatly reduce their lap time, I have not counted these laps, as they would also not be representative of a drivers’ general pace. I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the race distance ((which for Japan, excludes Alexander Albon, Daniel Ricciardo and Zhou Guanyu) so to not skew the season long averages against drivers that did not drive on low fuel with the best track conditions.

As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be taken into account in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally, the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.[2]

Analysis:

It is more difficult to directly compare drivers’ race pace than in previous races this season, due to the large variety of tyre strategies and stint lengths.
Leclerc had an amazing race, showing consistent pace and tyre management to be the only driver other than Magnussen to pull off an effective one-stop. Whilst not being as fast on average as his teammate as a result, Leclerc showed off how Ferrari has seemingly fixed their tyre woes and have provided their drivers a car that has strategic flexibility.
Both Mercedes drivers were incredibly close to each other throughout the race. Whilst Lewis was a little slower in the first stint due to damage, he then proceeded to be a little faster than George in the next two stints.
McLaren really messed up Lando Norris’ strategy in this race. Despite stopping Norris on his medium stint earlier than any other driver, the team still felt the need to stop at the same time as Leclerc for the final stint. As Norris was already behind the one-stopping Leclerc and went onto the same tyres, it was virtually impossible for him to finish ahead of Leclerc after that decision. A tyre offset is generally needed to make overtakes in Suzuka, so McLaren should have stopped Norris later and attempted to reclaim fourth place.
I have no idea what was going on with Lance Stroll’s race. His stint lengths and tyre degradation were particularly poor, only recording eight valid laps on his medium stint. Looking at the data and how fast Stroll’s tyres were degrading is concerning. Unless it comes out that his tyres were mistakenly made of Swiss cheese, Lance has really got to work on this element of his race craft to ensure never repeating a performance like this. Whilst his teammate’s stints were up there with the McLaren and Mercedes’, Lance’s were comparable to the Alpine drivers, who had the slowest car.

Further Resources-

Qualifying Pace:

Driver	Fastest Qualifying Time
Max Verstappen	88.197 (0%)
Sergio Perez	88.263 (+0.075%)
Lando Norris	88.489 (+0.331%)
Carlos Sainz	88.682 (+0.550%)
Fernando Alonso	88.686 (+0.554%)
Oscar Piastri	88.76 (+0.638%)
Lewis Hamilton	88.766 (+0.645%)
Charles Leclerc	88.786 (+0.668%)
George Russell	89.008 (+0.920%)
Yuki Tsunoda	89.413 (+1.379%)
Daniel Ricciardo	89.472 (+1.446%)
Nico Hulkenberg	89.494 (+1.471%)
Valtteri Bottas	89.593 (+1.583%)
Alexander Albon	89.714 (+1.720%)
Esteban Ocon	89.811 (+1.830%)
Lance Stroll	90.024 (+2.071%)
Pierre Gasly	90.119 (+2.179%)
Kevin Magnussen	90.131 (+2.193%)
Logan Sargeant	90.139 (+2.202%)
Zhou Guanyu	90.143 (+2.206%)

Average Race Pace:

Driver	Pace
Max Verstappen	96.028 (0%)
Sergio Perez	96.309 (+0.293%)
Carlos Sainz	96.441 (+0.430%)
Lando Norris	96.579 (+0.574%)
Oscar Piastri	96.908 (+0.916%)
Fernando Alonso	96.91 (+0.919%)
Charles Leclerc	96.921 (+0.929%)
George Russell	96.943 (+0.952%)
Lewis Hamilton	97.002 (+1.014%)
Lance Stroll	97.715 (+1.756%)
Nico Hulkenberg	97.91 (+1.960%)
Yuki Tsunoda	97.916 (+1.966%)
Logan Sargeant	97.937 (+1.988%)
Valtteri Bottas	98.161 (+2.221%)
Kevin Magnussen	98.596 (+2.674%)
Esteban Ocon	98.743 (+2.827%)
Pierre Gasly	98.928 (+3.020%)

All Stints:

Best Stints	Pace
Sainz 3rd (16L/NH)	94.726
Verstappen 3rd (18L/NH)	94.727
Hamilton 3rd (13L/UM)	94.822
Perez 3rd (19L/NH)	94.92
Russell 3rd (15L/UM)	95.206
Sargeant 4th (10L/NS)	95.671
Alonso 3rd (19L/NH)	95.779
Piastri 3rd (20L/NH)	95.798
Leclerc 2nd (26L/NH)	95.889
Norris 3rd (26L/NH)	95.941
Sargeant 3rd (5L/NM)	96.056
Hulkenberg 2nd/3rd (18L/NH)	96.185
Hamilton 2nd (14L/NH)	96.387
Russell 2nd (13L/NH)	96.475
Verstappen 2nd (16L/NM)	96.523
Stroll 4th (17L/NS)	96.644
Sainz 2nd (19L/UM)	97.036
Perez 2nd (16L/NM)	97.039
Norris 2nd (13L/NH)	97.298
Verstappen 1st (12L/NM)	97.321
Tsunoda 2nd/3rd (29L/NH)	97.346
Alonso 2nd (18L/NM)	97.401
Piastri 2nd (18L/NH)	97.506
Stroll 3rd (10L/NH)	97.591
Ocon 3rd (18L/NM)	97.416
Norris 1st (7L/NM)	97.614
Perez 1st (11L/NM)	97.648
Gasly 3rd (19L/NH)	97.682
Sargeant 2nd (10L/NH)	97.754
Magnussen 2nd (29L/NH)	97.827
Bottas 2nd/3rd (29L/NH)	97.829
Sainz 1st (11L/NM)	97.909
Leclerc 1st (22L/NM)	98.14
Alonso 1st (9L/NS)	98.318
Piastri 1st (8L/NM)	98.334
Ocon 2nd (12L/NH)	98.593
Russell 1st (18L/NH)	98.727
Bottas 1st/2nd (14L/NH)	98.749
Stroll 2nd (8L/NM)	98.849
Gasly 2nd (14L/NM)	98.877
Tsunoda 1st/2nd (13L/NH)	98.897
Hamilton 1st (19L/NH)	98.948
Hulkenberg 1st/2nd (26L/NH)	99.01
Stroll 1st (8L/NS)	99.012
Sargeant 1st (18L/NH)	99.82
Magnussen 1st (18L/NM)	99.836
Ocon 1st (15L/NH)	100.457
Gasly 1st (12L/NH)	100.961

Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NH= New Hards, UM= Used Mediums, NM= New Mediums, NS= New Softs

Number of Stints:

Number of Stints	Drivers
2	Leclerc, Magnussen, Bottas, Hulkenberg, Tsunoda*
3	Verstappen, Perez, Sainz, Norris, Alonso, Russell, Piastri, Hamilton, Ocon, Gasly, Bottas, Hulkenberg, Tsunoda*
4	Stroll, Sargeant

[1] I only count a stint if a driver has completed five or more laps, to avoid short stints for fastest lap attempts skewing the data on the table. This has led to the official first stints of Tsunoda, Bottas and Hulkenberg (who only recorded one valid lap in his first stint) not being included in the table, though this is represented through the labeling of their stints as 1^st/2^nd and 2^nd/3^rd

Japanese Grand Prix 2024- Five Star Drivers

Apr 12th, 2024
1. Max Verstappen-
Once again, Max dominated. He drove away from the field and had a pace advantage over everyone else. There’s little else to say, his performance was next to perfect, as it is every weekend.

2. Sergio Perez-

Whilst his teammate still dominated, Sergio Perez also had a fantastic weekend. On a track he has struggled at in the past, he nearly matched Max in qualifying. Whilst missing his chances to pass Max at the start and win the race, Sergio still delivered fantastic pace and audacious overtakes to ensure that Red Bull achieved their third 1-2 of the season.

3. Carlos Sainz-

Carlos once again proved the stronger Ferrari driver over the weekend. He maximized his good starting position to continue his 100% podium rate this season.[1] People are already starting to question why Ferrari made the call to replace Carlos, he is clearly one of the best drivers in F1. After spending years being underrated, it appears that F1 fans, teams and casual spectators are waking up to this fact. Ferrari currently have the best line-up in F1, let’s hope they don’t lose it.

4. Charles Leclerc-

Whilst not having the best qualifying performance, Charles more than made up for it in the race. Charles and Ferrari executed a fantastic one-stop strategy that no other driver could make work. Charles’ ability to post consistent lap times with minimal degradation (even compared to his own teammate) show that he is maximizing that Ferrari in the races. Once he has improved his qualifying, Charles could be unstoppable this season.

5. Yuki Tsunoda-

Last, but definitely not least, is the home hero Yuki Tsunoda. He was able to beat his teammate in qualifying, run a sublime strategy in the race and finish in front of an Aston Martin to get the last point on the table. His attitude is amazing, he puts the team before himself and combined with Perez’s strong performances, he has guaranteed that Daniel Ricciardo will never drive a Red Bull again. Getting a point at home clearly meant so much to Yuki and as someone who remembers his first year, when he was consistently outqualified by Pierre Gasly and swore too much on the radio, it has been a pleasure to see Yuki grow into one of F1’s most solid performers.

Tally:[2]
1. Max Verstappen- 3
2. Carlos Sainz- 3
3. Charles Leclerc- 2
4. Sergio Perez- 2
5. Yuki Tsunoda- 2
6. Nico Hulkenberg- 1.5
7. George Russell- 1
8. Oscar Piastri- 1
9. Lando Norris- 1
10. Lance Stroll- 1
11. Oliver Bearman- 1
12. Zhou Guanyu- 1
13. Kevin Magnussen- 0.5
[1] Bar when he was in hospital for appendicitis.

[2] Of how many times drivers have featured in these lists.
Japanese Grand Prix 2024 Review

Apr 8th, 2024

F1 delivered a thrilling Japanese Grand Prix. Often one of the best tracks for drivers, Suzuka has recently proved a difficult track to make overtakes. However, mixed up tyre strategies provided for battles throughout the field this year. Whilst the final result was predictable, the action was exciting, something that should please any fan of good racing.

Red Bull returned to dominate the field after their Australian hiccup. Whilst Verstappen’s win was expected, what surprised was how close Sergio Perez was throughout this weekend. Japan is one of Verstappen’s best tracks and Sergio had a relentless struggle here last season. I fully expected him to qualify in seventh and finish around fifth. Yet, Perez seems to have stepped up his game, only being 0.066 seconds slower than Verstappen in qualifying. He then proceeded to have an entertaining race, battling the rest of the field after his pit stops, to finish exactly where Red Bull need him to. Also, overtaking both Mercedes through 130R was inspired. Channeling his inner Alonso, Perez showed that he has the bravery to stop the second Red Bull seat going down under.

McLaren have had a slightly less fortunate week than the bulls. I fear I was not firm enough in the article I wrote on McLaren’s performance earlier in the year. Whilst the article I wrote back then expressed doubts and reservations on McLaren’s expectations of challenging Red Bull, I was actually certain that they would not be the second-best team this year. Thus, it was not to my surprise to see McLaren now claiming that it would now take another twelve months of development to improve, followed by the shock announcement that David Sanchez, who only started his job three months ago, was leaving.[1] Despite this, the grand prix itself was not even that bad for McLaren. They still look like they are solidly the third best team and can challenge for podiums in the right circumstances. But the team set expectations too high at the beginning of the year, disappointing their drivers and exemplifying the amusement of Ferrari fans. If McLaren had set realistic expectations, people would be singing their plaudits for seemingly dethroning Mercedes as a top team. Instead, we’re all busy wondering what happened to the Red Bull challenger we were promised.

This week’s stewards thankfully proved to be more competent than the ones in Australia. Towards the end of the race, Fernando was delivering another defensive masterclass, driving slowly to keep Piastri in DRS to stop George Russell from being able to advance and overtake on his faster tyres. No twenty second penalty was given to Fernando for driving slowly this week, but when Russell and Piastri had a moment at the chicane, I was nervous that one of them would get an unnecessary penalty. This was because the divebomb Russell made to attempt to overtake Piastri led to Piastri going off the track to avoid a collision. I was initially hesitant that Piastri may get a penalty for leaving the track, when his space was incredibly limited, but then Russell was put under investigation for pushing Piastri off the track. This was even though Piastri benefited from not taking the chicane. But the stewards took the right decision this week, to not punish hard racing. After Australia’s debacle, I was pleased to see the attitude of ‘let them race’ being adopted. I hope future stewards can learn from the fair handling of this incident.

Overall, a good weekend for F1. Suzuka reminded us why it was one of the greatest tracks in F1 history, moves were made across the field, Tsunoda got some points at home and Alpine dropped back like a stone. I couldn’t really have asked for much more.[2]

[1] McLaren will need “another 12 months” to fix F1 weaknesses, Fillip Cleeren, Autosport (1 April 2024) https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/mclaren-will-need-another-12-months-to-fix-f1-weaknesses/10593701/; McLaren’s Big Ex-Ferrari F1 Hire Out After Three Months, Josh Suttill, The Race (2 April 2024) https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/mclaren-reshuffle-ex-ferrari-f1-hire-david-sanchez-out-after-three-months/

[2] For my thoughts on Ferrari’s race, see my forthcoming article on the five star drivers.
Japanese Grand Prix 2024 Predictions

Apr 5th, 2024
Pole Position: Oscar Piastri
1. Max Verstappen
2. Lando Norris
3. Charles Leclerc
Bold Prediction: Sauber Double DNF

Category: Japanese Grand Prix 2024

Pace and Analysis- Japanese Grand Prix 2024

Japanese Grand Prix 2024- Five Star Drivers

Japanese Grand Prix 2024 Review

Japanese Grand Prix 2024 Predictions