F1 2024 – Page 2 – Ryan's Lil' F1 Blog

Pace and Analysis- Miami Grand Prix 2024

May 19th, 2024

I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. Whilst this extends the gap between drivers who made it to the top ten and those below, I’ve ruled using the overall fastest times a better grounding point for the true limit of the top cars, as the cars most likely to compete for points are my primary focus in these analyses.

Qualifying Pace-

Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their lap times set in the same qualifying session. I generally compare the last session both drivers competed in, however if both set their fastest times in earlier, I count these instead.

Race Pace-

I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing the first laps, laps in the pit lane and laps under the safety car as these are all too slow to be representative. Additionally, I removed any laps with major errors I noticed, for example spinning in the lap. In previous races, I excluded the laps after a safety car restart, as these tended to resemble the first laps, yet I counted them for China, as the long straights on the track seem to have negated the loss from cars being bunched up in the lap’s corners. I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the laps to not skew the season averages against drivers that never got the chance to run their cars on low fuel.^{^[1]}

As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be considered in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally, the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.^[2]

Analysis:

The McLaren was quite evidently the quickest car in clean air in Miami, as Piastri’s first stint and Norris’ second stint were both quicker than Verstappen’s respective stints.
The Aston Martin, especially from Alonso, was particularly slow in Miami. The team needs upgrades to improve their pace or they’re at risk of falling behind RB and maybe even Haas. Last year, Aston’s upgrades were very weak, some even making the team fall backwards, so if this trend repeats itself, Aston could be in real trouble.
Alpine is continuing to make a slow rise up the midfield. They were quicker than Williams and Sauber throughout the whole weekend. With Williams’ long-term plan being to sacrifice this year and Sauber’s never-ending incompetency, Alpine appear to be in the fight for points at least now. How far they’ll move up the midfield will be seen, but they probably expect to be with RB and Aston Martin by the end of the season.
Mercedes showed relatively solid pace in the race, particularly from Hamilton. Whilst not challenging the top three, I expect them to hold onto fourth place, when taking into account Aston’s struggles this weekend.

Further Resources-

Qualifying Pace:

Driver	Fastest Qualifying Time
Max Verstappen	87.241 (0%)
Charles Leclerc	87.382 (+0.162%)
Carlos Sainz	87.455 (+0.245%)
Sergio Perez	87.46 (+0.251%)
Lando Norris	87.594 (+0.405%)
Oscar Piastri	87.675 (+0.497%)
Lewis Hamilton	87.697 (+0.523%)
Pierre Gasly	87.976 (+0.842%)
George Russell	88.067 (+0.947%)
Nico Hulkenberg	88.146 (+1.037%)
Yuki Tsunoda	88.167 (+1.061%)
Lance Stroll	88.177 (+1.073%)
Esteban Ocon	88.209 (+1.110%)
Alexander Albon	88.343 (+1.263%)
Fernando Alonso	88.427 (+1.359%)
Valtteri Bottas	88.463 (+1.401%)
Logan Sargeant	88.487 (+1.428%)
Daniel Ricciardo	88.617 (+1.577%)
Kevin Magnussen	88.619 (+1.580%)
Zhou Guanyu	88.824 (+1.815%)

Average Race Pace:

Driver	Pace
Lando Norris	92.168 (0%)
Max Verstappen	92.198 (+0.033%)
Charles Leclerc	92.233 (+0.071%)
Carlos Sainz	92.305 (+0.150%)
Sergio Perez	92.405 (+0.258%)
Oscar Piastri	92.433 (+0.288%)
Lewis Hamilton	92.716 (+0.595%)
Yuki Tsunoda	93.051 (+0.959%)
George Russell	93.085 (+0.995%)
Nico Hulkenberg	93.231 (+1.154%)
Lance Stroll	93.26 (+1.185%)
Pierre Gasly	93.301 (+1.230%)
Esteban Ocon	93.309 (+1.238%)
Fernando Alonso	93.339 (+1.271%)
Kevin Magnussen	93.393 (+1.330%)
Alexander Albon	93.428 (+1.367%)
Valtteri Bottas	93.475 (+1.419%)
Zhou Guanyu	93.604 (+1.558%)
Daniel Ricciardo	93.649 (+1.607%)

All Stints:

Best Stints	Pace
Norris 2nd (24L/NH)	91.205
Sainz 2nd (24L/NH)	91.545
Verstappen 2nd (27L/NH)	91.576
Perez 3rd (24L/UM)	91.657
Hamilton 2nd (24L/UM)	91.68
Leclerc 2nd (30L/NH)	91.686
Piastri 3rd (16L/UM)	91.832
Piastri 2nd (6L/NH)	92.007
Tsunoda 2nd (24L/NH)	92.09
Russell 2nd (26L/NH)	92.406
Magnussen 3rd (25L/NM)	92.432
Hulkenberg 3rd (24L/NM)	92.512
Alonso 2nd (28L/UM)	92.587
Stroll 3rd (24L/UM)	92.667
Ocon 2nd (28L/NH)	92.677
Perez 2nd (8L/NH)	92.707
Bottas 3rd (24L/NM)	92.88
Ricciardo 2nd (24L/UM)	92.896
Zhou 2nd (24L/NS)	92.936
Piastri 1st (24L/NM)	92.94
Verstappen 1st (21L/NM)	92.999
Gasly 2nd (36L/NH)	93.047
Norris 1st (26L/NM)	93.057
Sainz 1st (24L/NM)	93.066
Leclerc 1st (17L/NM)	93.198
Albon 2nd (33L/NH)	93.405
Perez 1st (15L/NM)	93.442
Stroll 2nd (13L/UH)	93.712
Sargeant 2nd (13L/NH)	93.738
Bottas 2nd (13L/NH)	93.786
Hulkenberg 2nd (12L/NH)	93.786
Hamilton 1st (23L/NH)	93.797
Russell 1st (21L/UM)	93.926
Tsunoda 1st (25L/NM)	93.974
Stroll 1st (9L/UM)	94.187
Ocon 1st (20L/NM)	94.194
Gasly 1st (10L/NM)	94.216
Zhou 1st (24L/NM)	94.272
Albon 1st (8L/NM)	94.283
Hulkenberg 1st (10L/NM)	94.292
Alonso 1st (20L/UH)	94.392
Ricciardo 1st (24L/NH)	94.401
Sargeant 1st (9L/NM)	94.51
Magnussen 1st (20L/NH)	94.569
Bottas 1st (9L/NS)	94.612

Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NH= New Hards, UM= Used Mediums, NM= New Mediums, NS= New Softs

[1] In Miami, this excludes Logan Sargeant.

[2] I only include stints in the stint table if a driver has completed five or more representative laps, in an attempt to avoid fastest lap attempts. This has led to exclusions from the chart of Magnussen’s second stint and Albon’s third stint.

Miami Grand Prix 2024- Five Star Drivers

May 14th, 2024

Lando Norris-

Fantastic pace in the upgraded McLaren, combined with a well-timed safety car, earned Lando Norris his long-deserved first win. He managed the race perfectly and whilst some may argue that he got lucky, Lando wouldn’t be the first F1 driver to take his first win with the help of luck and doubtless he will achieve many more wins.

2. Oscar Piastri-

Oscar showed great race craft and pace through the first half of the race, even without all of the upgrades that Lando received, to be running second for a long time. His pace comparable to Verstappen was solid and whilst an unlucky collision with Sainz lost Oscar his chance of points, he showed off his potential this weekend.

3. Yuki Tsunoda-

Whilst more headlines were focused on Ricciardo’s fantastic fourth place in the sprint, it was Yuki who delivered during the race itself. Managing to comprehensively outpace George Russell in a theoretically slower car in the final stint, Yuki took a well-deserved seventh place and continues to cement his place as one of F1’s most consistent performers.

4. Esteban Ocon-

Like in China, Ocon had a fantastic performance in Miami, this time earning him (and Alpine) their first points of the season. Alpine look to be slowly moving up the grid as this season progresses and this week they seemed clearly ahead of Sauber and Williams, hinting that their long-term plan is starting to pay off.

5. Kevin Magnussen-

I never defined what a ‘star-driver’ was. For most, Kevin Magnussen caused absolute chaos in Miami, fighting beyond the limit in the sprint and causing a collision in the race. From my perspective however, Kevin was responsible for all of the entertainment this weekend. Without him, we would have had a boring sprint and may not have received a new winner. So Kevin is quickly becoming my problematic fave, hence his inclusion.

Tally:

Max Verstappen- 4
Carlos Sainz- 3
Lando Norris- 3
Yuki Tsunoda- 3
Nico Hulkenberg- 2.5
Sergio Perez- 2
Charles Leclerc- 2
Oscar Piastri- 2
Esteban Ocon- 2
Kevin Magnussen- 1.5
George Russell- 1
Fernando Alonso- 1
Lance Stroll- 1
Oliver Bearman- 1
Zhou Guanyu- 1

Miami Grand Prix 2024 Race Review

May 10th, 2024

I expected little from the Miami Grand Prix. The track is my least favourite on the calendar. The dusty, abrasive track surface that is difficult to overtake on is complemented by a terrible layout that no one enjoys. Miami feels less like a Grand Prix circuit and more like trying to hold a race in a Tesco car park. So, after some of the most boring qualifying sessions in years, I was prepared to be negative. This feeling only grew when one of the most divisive, controversial, and inflammatory politicians in the world decided to turn the event into a photo-op for his deranged political campaign. Yet, after I stored all this negative energy up and was really ready to write a rant, instead I watched one of the best races in the past couple of years. A long-deserved winner, an upgraded McLaren and a chaotic Kevin Magnussen saved the weekend, pleasantly surprising millions of fans in the process.

Initially, the race looked processional. Whilst there was some good battling in the first couple of laps, mostly thanks to the Alpine drivers, Max Verstappen looked to be under control. Whilst not pulling away from the field like he usually does, Max maintained a healthy three second gap. But the first sign of trouble came when he hit a cone. Unlike the woman who hit a cone outside Bristol Zoo a couple years ago, Verstappen did continue driving. But this cone proved an ominous warning, that perhaps fate was not on Max’s side last Sunday.

Shortly after the close encounter of the coned kind, Max pitted for a new set of tyres. Initially, I expected Max to build a comfortable lead when the pit cycle had concluded. Yet, instead of closing the gap, it appeared that Lando Norris, on used tyres, in his upgraded McLaren, was actually pulling away from Verstappen. Realizing that the McLaren had a race pace advantage, it became clear that Verstappen was going to face a challenge to win the race. A possible Norris win was on the cards. And then, F1’s glorious chaos merchant decided to place the winning deck in Lando’s hands.

Throughout this season, Kevin Magnussen has been responsible for half of the entertainment. Whilst his driving standards are not always impeccable, he brings the drama that F1 sorely needs. This was evident in the Saturday sprint, where his fight with Lewis Hamilton featured wheel banging, corner cutting and three penalties, turning an otherwise boring event into a roulette of chaos. Then on Sunday, Kevin caused a safety car through a collision with Sargeant at the perfect time for Lando to pit and retain the lead.

After the safety car period, Lando was ahead of Max, in a faster car, with newer tyres. He proceeded to build up the gap and win the race by around seven seconds. It has taken so long, but this race provided fans with the hope that Red Bull are not invincible. Now, with an upgraded Ferrari due in Imola, it appears that F1 may be about to get competitive again. I, for one, am unbelievably excited.

Pace and Analysis- Chinese Grand Prix 2024

May 3rd, 2024

Qualifying Pace-

I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. Whilst this extends the gap between drivers who made it to the top ten and those below, I’ve ruled using the overall fastest times a better grounding point for the true limit of the top cars, as the cars most likely to compete for points are my primary focus in these analyses.

Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their lap times set in the same qualifying session. I generally compare the last session both drivers competed in, however if both set their fastest times in earlier, I count these instead.

Race Pace-

I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing the first laps, laps in the pit lane and laps under the safety car as these are all too slow to be representative. Additionally, I removed any laps with major errors I noticed, for example spinning in the lap. In previous races, I excluded the laps after a safety car restart, as these tended to resemble the first laps, yet I counted them for China, as the long straights on the track seem to have negated the loss from cars being bunched up in the lap’s corners. I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the laps to not skew the season averages against drivers that never got the chance to run their cars on low fuel.
As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be considered in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally, the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.

Analysis:

• This race offers the best direct comparison between teammates so far this season, as the opportune safety car caused most teammates to have the exact same strategy during the second half of the race.
• The undercut was very powerful during this race, however the safety car negated the advantage those who had stopped early had. This proved an advantage for Norris and Leclerc, who did not pit before the safety car, however, if there was no safety car, it is likely both drivers would have lost out.
• Verstappen was the only driver to complete lap twenty one of the race before the safety car was called.
• As seen on Twitter, I can confirm that every lap Verstappen completed was faster than the respective laps from Perez, Leclerc, and Norris. These drivers were never faster than Verstappen, not for a lap, not for a stint and probably not even for a corner.
• Piastri was significantly slower than Norris for the entire race, in every stint, even before he received damage. Whilst he has shown a lot of potential, he really needs to learn how to manage the tyres soon. This is an essential skill to be successful in the sport, if Oscar is the generational talent many have claimed, he can’t use inexperience as an excuse for bad race pace.
• This was the first weekend that Alpine did not look like the slowest car. I would say, well done, but they are the Renault works team, they don’t really have too many excuses for their performance this year.

Further Resources-
Qualifying Pace:

Driver	Fastest Qualifying Time
Max Verstappen	93.66 (0%)
Sergio Perez	93.982 (+0.344%)
Fernando Alonso	94.148 (+0.521%)
Lando Norris	94.165 (+0.539%)
Oscar Piastri	94.273 (+0.654%)
Charles Leclerc	94.289 (+0.671%)
Carlos Sainz	94.297 (+0.680%)
George Russell	94.433 (+0.825%)
Nico Hulkenberg	94.604 (+1.008%)
Valtteri Bottas	94.665 (+1.073%)
Lance Stroll	94.838 (+1.257%)
Daniel Ricciardo	94.934 (+1.360%)
Esteban Ocon	95.223 (+1.669%)
Alexander Albon	95.241 (+1.688%)
Pierre Gasly	95.287 (+1.737%)
Zhou Guanyu	95.505 (+1.970%)
Kevin Magnussen	95.516 (+1.982%)
Lewis Hamilton	95.573 (+2.042%)
Yuki Tsunoda	95.746 (+2.227%)
Logan Sargeant	96.358 (+2.881%)

Average Race Pace:

Driver	Pace
Max Verstappen	99.779 (0%)
Sergio Perez	100.42 (+0.643%)
Lando Norris	100.664 (+0.887%)
Fernando Alonso	100.771 (+0.995%)
Charles Leclerc	100.979 (+1.203%)
George Russell	101.19 (+1.414%)
Carlos Sainz	101.204 (+1.428%)
Lance Stroll	101.365 (+1.590%)
Pierre Gasly	101.576 (+1.802%)
Oscar Piastri	101.64 (+1.865%)
Zhou Guanyu	101.777 (+2.002%)
Nico Hulkenberg	101.854 (+2.080%)
Lewis Hamilton	101.888 (+2.114%)
Esteban Ocon	101.946 (+2.172%)
Alexander Albon	102.154 (+2.380%)
Kevin Magnussen	102.567 (+2.794%)
Logan Sargeant	102.641 (+2.869%)

All Stints:

Best Stints	Pace
Verstappen 3rd (25L/NH)	99.194
Alonso 4th (12L/NM)	99.572
Norris 2nd (25L/NH)	99.743
Perez 3rd (25L/NH)	99.849
Verstappen 2nd (7L/NH)	99.982
Leclerc 2nd (25L/NH)	100.079
Alonso 3rd (11L/NS)	100.259
Zhou 4th (15L/NS)	100.287
Sainz 2nd (27L/NH)	100.408
Stroll 5th (20L/UH)	100.485
Gasly 4th (17L/NM)	100.519
Russell 3rd (25L/NH)	100.591
Perez 2nd (6L/NH)	100.622
Verstappen 1st (11L/NM)	100.978
Piastri 3rd (25L/NH)	101.274
Hamilton 3rd (25L/NH)	101.276
Alonso 2nd (8L/NH)	101.38
Hulkenberg 3rd (25L/NH)	101.394
Russell 2nd (8L/NM)	101.45
Ocon 3rd (25L/NH)	101.457
Ricciardo 2nd (5L/NM)	101.477
Gasly 3rd (6L/NH)	101.486
Albon 3rd (25L/NH)	101.535
Perez 1st (11L/NM)	101.607
Zhou 3rd (8L/NH)	101.739
Stroll 2nd (10L/NM)	101.846
Gasly 2nd (8L/NH)	101.86
Norris 1st (19L/NM)	101.875
Magnussen 3rd (25L/NM)	101.928
Hulkenberg 2nd (11L/NH)	102.126
Leclerc 1st (19L/NM)	102.163
Sargeant 2nd (7L/NM)	102.222
Bottas 2nd (9L/NH)	102.223
Ocon 2nd (10L/NH)	102.255
Hamilton 2nd (10L/NM)	102.256
Sargeant 3rd (25L/NH)	102.295
Alonso 1st (9L/NM)	102.455
Tsunoda 2nd (11L/NM)	102.582
Piastri 1st (14L/NM)	102.583
Zhou 2nd (11L/NH)	102.606
Russell 1st (9L/NM)	102.62
Sainz 1st (15L/NM)	102.636
Stroll 1st (7L/NS)	102.825
Albon 2nd (10L/NM)	102.884
Bottas 1st (7L/NM)	103.053
Ocon 1st (7L/NM)	103.249
Hulkenberg 1st (6L/NM)	103.272
Albon 1st (7L/NM)	103.32
Gasly 1st (9L/NM)	103.381
Ricciardo 1st (12L/NM)	103.396
Tsunoda 1st (6L/NS)	103.53
Hamilton 1st (7L/NS)	103.549
Sargeant 1st (11L/NS)	103.799
Magnussen 1st (15L/NH)	103.812
Zhou 1st (6L/NM)	104.029

Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NH= New Hards, UM= Used Mediums, NM= New Mediums, NS= New Softs

Miami Grand Prix 2024 Predictions

May 3rd, 2024

Sprint-

Max Verstappen
Carlos Sainz
Sergio Perez

Pole Position: Max Verstappen

Charles Leclerc
Max Verstappen
Carlos Sainz

Bold Prediction: Albon scores his first points of the season. Pls.

Chinese Grand Prix 2024- Five Star Drivers

Apr 21st, 2024

Max Verstappen-

Max was dominant this weekend, easily having the pace over all the other cars. Surviving two safety car restarts with no trouble, Verstappen drove one of his classic, relaxing Sunday afternoon drives. The dominance of Red Bull this weekend was scary, these Ferrari upgrades cannot come soon enough.

2. Lando Norris-

Whilst bottling the chance to win the Saturday Sprint, Lando was the MVP this weekend. His pace in the wet qualifying was scarily good and ensured that Perez was out paced, out strategized, and out raced. The driver of the day award was well deserved.

3. Fernando Alonso-

Fernando had an amazing couple of qualifying sessions, ending up third. He then ran second throughout the early portion of the race. Whilst dropping down due to a car lacking race pace and bad strategy, Fernando recovered through the field with a series of varied and decisive overtakes, finishing seventh and taking the fastest lap to boot.

4. Nico Hulkenberg-

Hulkenberg continued his strong start to the season to secure yet another point for Haas. Nico qualified in the top ten and made no major errors to finish in the best possible position for his car. Haas have been the big surprise of the season and are beginning to look like rockstars.

5. Esteban Ocon-

Ocon has performed well during the season, dragging that tractor into positions it has no right being in. This week, that position was eleventh, just outside of the points. Whilst seldom on screen, I noticed Ocon making moves on the timing screen. How he did so in that car is anyone’s guess, but it deserves a shout out.

Tally:

Max Verstappen- 4
Carlos Sainz- 3
Nico Hulkenberg- 2.5
Sergio Perez- 2
Charles Leclerc- 2
Lando Norris- 2
Yuki Tsunoda- 2
Oscar Piastri- 1
George Russell- 1
Fernando Alonso- 1
Lance Stroll- 1
Oliver Bearman- 1
Zhou Guanyu- 1
Esteban Ocon- 1
Kevin Magnussen- 0.5

Chinese Grand Prix 2024 Review

Apr 21st, 2024

A decent race in Shanghai this weekend was buoyed by the stellar commentary of Nico Rosberg. He has the perspective of someone who deeply understands the sport, able to analyse moment-to-moment actions quickly and reasonably, alongside possessing a balanced perspective on the long-term picture of the race. He is not afraid to call out Crofty when he makes flawed observations, which afforded me the usual activity of shouting at my TV whenever I disagree with him. To accredit David Croft, he can be great at delivering hype during exciting battles, but it helps to have a more analytical voice to balance the coverage out.

Regardless of Nico Rosberg’s commentary, I enjoy this track. There are a variety of corners, all wide enough to allow for possible overtakes. This allows for drivers to attempt different lines and find unique opportunities to make those vital moves fans enjoy. The crowd also delivered, the hype for Zhou Guanyu, F1’s first Chinese driver, rivalling the support from Japanese or Dutch fans. Seeing Zhou crying at the end after finally racing at home was an incredibly wholesome moment. Whilst Zhou has not been an outstanding driver, a country that possesses over a billion people and one of the most important markets in the world needs a star to cheer.

Two weeks ago, McLaren were ruing their disappointment in Japan. But this week, their disappointment dissipated, as they unexpectedly proved the second fastest team. Whilst not having the pace to challenge Verstappen, Lando Norris maximized his pace to finish in second, a fantastic result for the team. Post-race, Lando was hopeful of achieving his long-awaited win this year and if McLaren can develop their car well, his first win seems inevitable and deserving for a driver of evident talent.

Two other topics that warrant mentioning are the arbiters of entertainment, Ferrari and Fernando. Whilst both suffered a regretful weekend, Ferrari lacking pace and Aston Martin strategy, the best overtakes all seemed to be those committed by Fernando and Charles. Fernando instantly ended Sergio Perez’s chance of winning the race by overtaking him at the start and the Ferrari’s picked their way through the slower cars. Charles humbled his on-form teammate, whilst in the meantime Alonso’s teammate humbled himself. The second half of the race proved weak for both drivers, Leclerc slowly realizing that he hadn’t been given the pace to fight Norris and Aston foolishly pitting Alonso onto soft tyres, then requiring another pit stop to finish the race. But both drivers used their talent to maximize the situations, Leclerc finishing just off of the podium and Alonso making decisive moves in his final stint to wrap up a healthy haul of points.

In conclusion, we had a decent weekend of F1 with good commentary, a solid track and a surprising second place. It’s good to have Shanghai back on the Formula One calendar, though hopefully next year we have a fight for the win.

Pace and Analysis- Japanese Grand Prix 2024

Apr 20th, 2024

This article is part of a series of articles I will be completing throughout the year, where I am going to analyze the average pace of the drivers and teams, in both qualifying and the races, to be able to gain a picture of performance levels.

I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. One caveat that arises, is that the top 10 drivers, through progressing to the final qualifying session, have a better track condition that those who only took part in Q1 or Q2. Due to this, the gap will be larger for the drivers outside the top ten than if qualifying was performed in one representative session. However, since the final session represents the point at which the top drivers are truly pushing, I’ve ruled it a better grounding point for the true limit of the cars, rather than only focusing on the first qualifying session in which the best times are not recorded.

Qualifying Pace-

With no further ado, here are the gaps to pole:

Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their fastest lap times set in the same session, so if one driver got into Q3, whilst the other only got into Q2, then I would count their Q2 times. Additionally, the lap times have to be representative, to avoid comparing out laps completed before a driver breaks down, as this would give us a very inaccurate representation of the drivers’ pace:

Race Pace-

Next up in our data sets is the race pace of the drivers. I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing first laps, in-laps, out-laps and virtual safety car laps, as all these all not representative of a driver’s general pace. Additionally, if a driver has a spin, or another error that would greatly reduce their lap time, I have not counted these laps, as they would also not be representative of a drivers’ general pace. I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the race distance ((which for Japan, excludes Alexander Albon, Daniel Ricciardo and Zhou Guanyu) so to not skew the season long averages against drivers that did not drive on low fuel with the best track conditions.

As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be taken into account in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally, the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.[2]

Analysis:

It is more difficult to directly compare drivers’ race pace than in previous races this season, due to the large variety of tyre strategies and stint lengths.
Leclerc had an amazing race, showing consistent pace and tyre management to be the only driver other than Magnussen to pull off an effective one-stop. Whilst not being as fast on average as his teammate as a result, Leclerc showed off how Ferrari has seemingly fixed their tyre woes and have provided their drivers a car that has strategic flexibility.
Both Mercedes drivers were incredibly close to each other throughout the race. Whilst Lewis was a little slower in the first stint due to damage, he then proceeded to be a little faster than George in the next two stints.
McLaren really messed up Lando Norris’ strategy in this race. Despite stopping Norris on his medium stint earlier than any other driver, the team still felt the need to stop at the same time as Leclerc for the final stint. As Norris was already behind the one-stopping Leclerc and went onto the same tyres, it was virtually impossible for him to finish ahead of Leclerc after that decision. A tyre offset is generally needed to make overtakes in Suzuka, so McLaren should have stopped Norris later and attempted to reclaim fourth place.
I have no idea what was going on with Lance Stroll’s race. His stint lengths and tyre degradation were particularly poor, only recording eight valid laps on his medium stint. Looking at the data and how fast Stroll’s tyres were degrading is concerning. Unless it comes out that his tyres were mistakenly made of Swiss cheese, Lance has really got to work on this element of his race craft to ensure never repeating a performance like this. Whilst his teammate’s stints were up there with the McLaren and Mercedes’, Lance’s were comparable to the Alpine drivers, who had the slowest car.

Further Resources-

Qualifying Pace:

Driver	Fastest Qualifying Time
Max Verstappen	88.197 (0%)
Sergio Perez	88.263 (+0.075%)
Lando Norris	88.489 (+0.331%)
Carlos Sainz	88.682 (+0.550%)
Fernando Alonso	88.686 (+0.554%)
Oscar Piastri	88.76 (+0.638%)
Lewis Hamilton	88.766 (+0.645%)
Charles Leclerc	88.786 (+0.668%)
George Russell	89.008 (+0.920%)
Yuki Tsunoda	89.413 (+1.379%)
Daniel Ricciardo	89.472 (+1.446%)
Nico Hulkenberg	89.494 (+1.471%)
Valtteri Bottas	89.593 (+1.583%)
Alexander Albon	89.714 (+1.720%)
Esteban Ocon	89.811 (+1.830%)
Lance Stroll	90.024 (+2.071%)
Pierre Gasly	90.119 (+2.179%)
Kevin Magnussen	90.131 (+2.193%)
Logan Sargeant	90.139 (+2.202%)
Zhou Guanyu	90.143 (+2.206%)

Average Race Pace:

Driver	Pace
Max Verstappen	96.028 (0%)
Sergio Perez	96.309 (+0.293%)
Carlos Sainz	96.441 (+0.430%)
Lando Norris	96.579 (+0.574%)
Oscar Piastri	96.908 (+0.916%)
Fernando Alonso	96.91 (+0.919%)
Charles Leclerc	96.921 (+0.929%)
George Russell	96.943 (+0.952%)
Lewis Hamilton	97.002 (+1.014%)
Lance Stroll	97.715 (+1.756%)
Nico Hulkenberg	97.91 (+1.960%)
Yuki Tsunoda	97.916 (+1.966%)
Logan Sargeant	97.937 (+1.988%)
Valtteri Bottas	98.161 (+2.221%)
Kevin Magnussen	98.596 (+2.674%)
Esteban Ocon	98.743 (+2.827%)
Pierre Gasly	98.928 (+3.020%)

All Stints:

Best Stints	Pace
Sainz 3rd (16L/NH)	94.726
Verstappen 3rd (18L/NH)	94.727
Hamilton 3rd (13L/UM)	94.822
Perez 3rd (19L/NH)	94.92
Russell 3rd (15L/UM)	95.206
Sargeant 4th (10L/NS)	95.671
Alonso 3rd (19L/NH)	95.779
Piastri 3rd (20L/NH)	95.798
Leclerc 2nd (26L/NH)	95.889
Norris 3rd (26L/NH)	95.941
Sargeant 3rd (5L/NM)	96.056
Hulkenberg 2nd/3rd (18L/NH)	96.185
Hamilton 2nd (14L/NH)	96.387
Russell 2nd (13L/NH)	96.475
Verstappen 2nd (16L/NM)	96.523
Stroll 4th (17L/NS)	96.644
Sainz 2nd (19L/UM)	97.036
Perez 2nd (16L/NM)	97.039
Norris 2nd (13L/NH)	97.298
Verstappen 1st (12L/NM)	97.321
Tsunoda 2nd/3rd (29L/NH)	97.346
Alonso 2nd (18L/NM)	97.401
Piastri 2nd (18L/NH)	97.506
Stroll 3rd (10L/NH)	97.591
Ocon 3rd (18L/NM)	97.416
Norris 1st (7L/NM)	97.614
Perez 1st (11L/NM)	97.648
Gasly 3rd (19L/NH)	97.682
Sargeant 2nd (10L/NH)	97.754
Magnussen 2nd (29L/NH)	97.827
Bottas 2nd/3rd (29L/NH)	97.829
Sainz 1st (11L/NM)	97.909
Leclerc 1st (22L/NM)	98.14
Alonso 1st (9L/NS)	98.318
Piastri 1st (8L/NM)	98.334
Ocon 2nd (12L/NH)	98.593
Russell 1st (18L/NH)	98.727
Bottas 1st/2nd (14L/NH)	98.749
Stroll 2nd (8L/NM)	98.849
Gasly 2nd (14L/NM)	98.877
Tsunoda 1st/2nd (13L/NH)	98.897
Hamilton 1st (19L/NH)	98.948
Hulkenberg 1st/2nd (26L/NH)	99.01
Stroll 1st (8L/NS)	99.012
Sargeant 1st (18L/NH)	99.82
Magnussen 1st (18L/NM)	99.836
Ocon 1st (15L/NH)	100.457
Gasly 1st (12L/NH)	100.961

Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NH= New Hards, UM= Used Mediums, NM= New Mediums, NS= New Softs

Number of Stints:

Number of Stints	Drivers
2	Leclerc, Magnussen, Bottas, Hulkenberg, Tsunoda*
3	Verstappen, Perez, Sainz, Norris, Alonso, Russell, Piastri, Hamilton, Ocon, Gasly, Bottas, Hulkenberg, Tsunoda*
4	Stroll, Sargeant

[1] I only count a stint if a driver has completed five or more laps, to avoid short stints for fastest lap attempts skewing the data on the table. This has led to the official first stints of Tsunoda, Bottas and Hulkenberg (who only recorded one valid lap in his first stint) not being included in the table, though this is represented through the labeling of their stints as 1^st/2^nd and 2^nd/3^rd

Japanese Grand Prix 2024- Five Star Drivers

Apr 12th, 2024

Max Verstappen-

Once again, Max dominated. He drove away from the field and had a pace advantage over everyone else. There’s little else to say, his performance was next to perfect, as it is every weekend.

2. Sergio Perez-

Whilst his teammate still dominated, Sergio Perez also had a fantastic weekend. On a track he has struggled at in the past, he nearly matched Max in qualifying. Whilst missing his chances to pass Max at the start and win the race, Sergio still delivered fantastic pace and audacious overtakes to ensure that Red Bull achieved their third 1-2 of the season.

3. Carlos Sainz-

Carlos once again proved the stronger Ferrari driver over the weekend. He maximized his good starting position to continue his 100% podium rate this season.[1] People are already starting to question why Ferrari made the call to replace Carlos, he is clearly one of the best drivers in F1. After spending years being underrated, it appears that F1 fans, teams and casual spectators are waking up to this fact. Ferrari currently have the best line-up in F1, let’s hope they don’t lose it.

4. Charles Leclerc-

Whilst not having the best qualifying performance, Charles more than made up for it in the race. Charles and Ferrari executed a fantastic one-stop strategy that no other driver could make work. Charles’ ability to post consistent lap times with minimal degradation (even compared to his own teammate) show that he is maximizing that Ferrari in the races. Once he has improved his qualifying, Charles could be unstoppable this season.

5. Yuki Tsunoda-

Last, but definitely not least, is the home hero Yuki Tsunoda. He was able to beat his teammate in qualifying, run a sublime strategy in the race and finish in front of an Aston Martin to get the last point on the table. His attitude is amazing, he puts the team before himself and combined with Perez’s strong performances, he has guaranteed that Daniel Ricciardo will never drive a Red Bull again. Getting a point at home clearly meant so much to Yuki and as someone who remembers his first year, when he was consistently outqualified by Pierre Gasly and swore too much on the radio, it has been a pleasure to see Yuki grow into one of F1’s most solid performers.

Tally:[2]

Max Verstappen- 3
Carlos Sainz- 3
Charles Leclerc- 2
Sergio Perez- 2
Yuki Tsunoda- 2
Nico Hulkenberg- 1.5
George Russell- 1
Oscar Piastri- 1
Lando Norris- 1
Lance Stroll- 1
Oliver Bearman- 1
Zhou Guanyu- 1
Kevin Magnussen- 0.5

[1] Bar when he was in hospital for appendicitis.

[2] Of how many times drivers have featured in these lists.

Pace and Analysis- Australian Grand Prix 2024

Apr 6th, 2024

This article is part of a series of articles I will be completing throughout the year, where I am going to analyze the average pace of the drivers and teams, in both qualifying and the races, to be able to gain a picture of performance levels.

I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. One caveat that arises, is that the top 10 drivers, through progressing to the final qualifying session, have a better track condition that those who only took part in Q1 or Q2. Due to this, the gap will be larger for the drivers outside the top ten than if qualifying was performed in one representative session. However, since the final session represents the point at which the top drivers are truly pushing, I’ve ruled it a better grounding point for the true limit of the cars, rather than only focusing on the first qualifying session in which the best times are not recorded.

Qualifying Pace-

With no further ado, here are the gaps to pole:

And for the teams:

Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their fastest lap times set in the same session, so if one driver got into Q3, whilst the other only got into Q2, then I would count their Q2 times. Additionally, the lap times have to be representative, to avoid comparing out laps completed before a driver breaks down, as this would give us a very inaccurate representation of the drivers’ pace. Williams have no comparison for Australia, as Sargeant did not take part in the weekend after Albon’s crash:

Race Pace-

Next up in our data sets is the race pace of the drivers. I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing first laps, in-laps, out-laps and virtual safety car laps, as all these all not representative of a driver’s general pace. Additionally, if a driver has a spin, or another error that would greatly reduce their lap time, I have not counted these laps, as they would also not be representative of a drivers’ general pace.[1] I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the race distance (which for Australia, excludes Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen) so to not skew the season long averages against drivers that did not drive on low fuel with the best track conditions.

As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be taken into account in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally, the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.[2]

And for the teams:

Analysis:

Ferrari had a good chance to win this race even if Verstappen did not retire. Perez’s pace was far off the Ferrari’s and McLaren’s; being 0.64% off Sainz’s average. This is more than Perez has been behind Verstappen for the first two races of the season, implying that Verstappen’s pace would have been slower too, albeit with track position.
Leclerc, whilst weaker than Sainz throughout the weekend, started to show signs of improvement during his final stint, with his lap times dipping into the 79-second range. The Ferrari has seemed a tad inconsistent over the first few rounds, so my interpretation of this race’s data is that Leclerc is beginning to learn how to extract the maximum from his car but isn’t quite there yet.
The McLaren race pace was also great in Australia. Whilst not quite measuring up to Ferrari in qualifying, they were with them in the race. Norris even set the fastest stint of the race. McLaren could be challenging for wins around similar circuits.
There were three clear tiers this weekend, which are beginning to show up in the averages. The top tier is Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren, the middle tier seems to be Aston Martin, Mercedes and RB and the other teams seem to be in the lower tier. At this point, only the top three teams seem to hold any hope of race wins.
Lap 18 was not included in the analysis for most drivers due to the presence of the VSC. Ocon and Bottas were exceptions as they were only around halfway through lap 17 when the green flag was called. The other notable exception was Magnussen, who seemed to have a perfect reaction to the green flag, as unlike every other driver in a similar position on the track to him, his lap time did not appear to be an outlier.
Additionally, Magnussen appeared to have a minor problem in the last few laps, as the times began to dramatically drop. Without this drop off he would have outpaced Hulkenberg.
Bottas showed decent pace throughout the race. He may have been in the hunt for points if Sauber’s pit stops were not occurring.

Further Resources-

Qualifying Pace:

Driver	Fastest Qualifying Time
Max Verstappen	75.915 (0%)
Carlos Sainz	76.185 (+0.356%)
Sergio Perez	76.274 (+0.473%)
Charles Leclerc	76.304 (+0.512%)
Lando Norris	76.315 (+0.527%)
Oscar Piastri	76.572 (+0.865%)
Fernando Alonso	76.71 (+1.047%)
George Russell	76.724 (+1.066%)
Lance Stroll	76.78 (+1.139%)
Yuki Tsunoda	76.788 (+1.150%)
Lewis Hamilton	76.96 (+1.377%)
Alexander Albon	77.13 (+1.600%)
Valtteri Bottas	77.34 (+1.877%)
Kevin Magnussen	77.427 (+1.992%)
Esteban Ocon	77.617 (+2.242%)
Nico Hulkenberg	77.976 (+2.715%)
Pierre Gasly	77.982 (+2.723%)
Daniel Ricciardo	78.085 (+2.858%)
Zhou Guanyu	78.188 (+2.994%)

Average Race Pace:

Driver	Pace
Carlos Sainz	81.458 (0%)
Charles Leclerc	81.491 (+0.040%)
Lando Norris	81.552 (+0.115%)
Oscar Piastri	81.749 (+0.356%)
Sergio Perez	81.977 (+0.636%)
George Russell	82.37 (+1.120%)
Fernando Alonso	82.432 (+1.195%)
Lance Stroll	82.541 (+1.329%)
Yuki Tsunoda	82.609 (+1.413%)
Daniel Ricciardo	82.844 (+1.702%)
Valtteri Bottas	82.858 (+1.719%)
Nico Hulkenberg	82.864 (+1.726%)
Kevin Magnussen	82.887 (+1.754%)
Esteban Ocon	82.897 (+1.766%)
Zhou Guanyu	82.93 (+1.806%)
Alexander Albon	82.941 (+1.820%)
Pierre Gasly	83.146 (+2.072%)

All Stints:

Best Stints	Pace
Norris 3rd (16L/UH)	80.333
Sainz 3rd (15L/NH)	80.485
Piastri 3rd (16L/UH)	80.561
Leclerc 3rd (22L/NH)	80.588
Russell 3rd (10L/NH)	80.7
Perez 3rd (21L/NH)	81.084
Alonso 3rd (18L/UH)	81.096
Stroll 3rd (18L/UH)	81.447
Sainz 2nd (22L/NH)	81.543
Tsunoda 3rd (19L/NH)	81.711
Gasly 3rd (13L/NH)	81.711
Norris 2nd (22L/UH)	81.764
Hulkenberg 3rd (20L/NH)	81.91
Ocon 4th (12L/UH)	81.93
Leclerc 2nd (21L/NH)	82.016
Perez 2nd (17L/NH)	82.18
Magnussen 3rd (22L/NH)	82.188
Bottas 3rd (18L/NH)	82.191
Piastri 2nd (25L/UH)	82.215
Zhou 2nd/3rd (19L/NH)	82.231
Ricciardo 2nd/3rd (26L/NH)	82.344
Sainz 1st (14L/NM)	82.367
Albon 2nd/3rd (28L/NH)	82.618
Russell 2nd (33L/NH)	82.731
Leclerc 1st (7L/NM)	82.754
Alonso 2nd (22L/UM)	82.764
Norris 1st (12L/NM)	82.787
Piastri 1st (7L/NM)	82.798
Hulkenberg 2nd (16L/NM)	82.887
Ocon 2nd (5L/NH)	83.077
Ocon 3rd (24L/NH)	83.12
Tsunoda 2nd (23L/NH)	83.126
Stroll 2nd (25L/UH)	83.155
Bottas 2nd (25L/UH)	83.155
Perez 1st (12L/NM)	83.177
Russell 1st (6L/NM)	83.168
Alonso 1st (15L/UH)	83.192
Hamilton 2nd (7L/NH)	83.205
Albon 1st/2nd (17L/NH)	83.252
Gasly 2nd (22L/NH)	83.263
Stroll 1st (6L/UM)	83.264
Zhou 1st/2nd (25L/UH)	83.273
Ricciardo 1st/2nd (20L/NH)	83.284
Magnussen 2nd (23L/NH)	83.347
Tsunoda 1st (7L/NM)	83.349
Hamilton 1st (5L/NS)	83.456
Bottas 1st (6L/UM)	83.624
Ocon 1st (7L/NM)	83.662
Magnussen 1st (5L/NM)	83.851
Hulkenberg 1st (15L/NH)	84.112
Gasly 1st (15L/NM)	84.219

Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NH= New Hards, UH= Used Hards, NM= New Mediums, NS= New Softs

Number of Stints:

Number of Stints	Drivers
2	Albon,Ricciardo,Zhou*, Hamilton
3	Sainz, Leclerc, Norris, Piastri, Perez, Stroll, Tsunoda, Alonso, Hulkenberg, Magnussen, Albon, Ricciardo, Gasly, Bottas, Zhou*, Russell
4	Ocon

Albon, Ricciardo and Zhou had either two or three stints, as I did not count their opening stints due to them being too short.

[1] For example, I removed Oscar Piastri’s lap 38, as he went into the gravel and lost at least 5 seconds. Albon lap 56, Ricciardo lap 53 and Gasly lap 16 also looked suspect, but I was unable to find any evidence of a major mistake, so these laps were left in.

[2] I only count a stint if a driver has completed five or more laps, to avoid short stints for fastest lap attempts skewing the data on the table. This has led to the official first stints of Albon, Ricciardo and Zhou not being included in the table, though this is represented through the labeling of their stints as 1^st/2^nd and 2^nd/3^rd

Tag: F1 2024