Pole Position: Charles Leclerc
1st: Max Verstappen
2nd: Charles Leclerc
3rd: Lewis Hamilton
Bonus Prediction: Both VCARBs in Q3
Tag: Lewis Hamilton
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With the first race just days away, now is a great time to predict the championship standings. I have deliberately avoided seeing anyone else’s predictions, so am relying on testing, reports and social media reports to come up with these predictions.
Constructors Championship:
10: Sauber
As well as having a really poor sponsorship I wrote an article about, Sauber didn’t inspire much hope during testing. I expect a tough couple of seasons before Audi takes over the team.
9: Haas
I am taking a risk by not putting Haas last. But despite the general pessimism from the team, I’m betting on both Haas and Sauber not scoring many points, so it should only take one good result to swing the standings. I would not be surprised to see a surprise finish from Hulkenberg that would prevent Haas from finishing last again.
8: Alpine
In F1 testing Alpine looked like they could be the slowest team. Reports hint that the car is overweight and lacks downforce. Yes, the team should develop throughout the year but I don’t suspect them to develop fast enough to escape the lower midfield.
7: Williams
Albon proved last year that he can deliver consistently and singlehandedly won Williams seventh last year. For Williams to secure this position though, Logan Sargeant needs to perform. Sargeant had a really poor season last year, only scoring one point to Albon’s twenty-seven. But, if the Williams is a more stable car, hopefully Sargeant can score some better results to be top of the lower midfield.
6: Visa Cash App RB
Whilst having a ridiculous name, the VCARB impressed at pre-season testing. I expect them to occupy the position Alpine did last year, not challenging the top teams, but removed from the cars behind them..
5: Aston Martin
Alonso’s long run pace was quite impressive at pre-season testing. Whilst few expect a repeat of last year, where Aston Martin launched as the second fastest car, I do believe that they’ll be competing with the other top teams for podiums. They may even develop into one of the fastest cars. However, I cannot in good conscience put them any higher than fifth, due to the presence of Lance Stroll. He had a pretty terrible season last year and I expect this form to continue. But, if Stroll can turn his performances around, Aston could challenge for the top three places.
4: McLaren
I published an article at the beginning of the year doubting McLaren’s ambitions to be a Red Bull challenger. I based this upon the fact that McLaren had a history of making overly ambitious targets before their car had tested. Their long run pace appears to have vindicated me, as they look quite a way behind Red Bull and Ferrari. Whilst the track characteristics of Bahrain would exaggerate the deficit, as the McLaren was best in high-speed tracks last year, I think it unlikely that McLaren will immediately be challenging for race wins. However, as they have proven over the last two years, the team has a knack for in season development. This will likely save their season and despite my doubts, I do hope to see some McLaren race wins this year.
3: Mercedes
I expect Mercedes to have a very track specific car, as they have for the last couple of years, but probably with higher highs than the last two years. I think Mercedes, McLaren and possibly Aston Martin will be locked in a season long battle for third. But I think Mercedes has the best driver line up and Lewis Hamilton and George Russell should both be able to get wins if the car allows it.
2: Ferrari
Ferrari’s long run pace at the pre-season testing looked impressive. They do not look that far off Red Bull. I still expect Red Bull to be champions yet am optimistic that Ferrari will get a number of race wins this year.
1: Red Bull
The RB20 looks intimidating. Max Verstappen did not look to have any degradation in his long run pace and the team may have even found the W13’s missing downforce. A combination of another dominant car and the best driver in F1 should deliver them a relatively easy constructors’ championship.
Drivers Championship:
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
- Sergio Perez
- Lewis Hamilton
- Fernando Alonso
- Carlos Sainz
- Lando Norris
- George Russell
- Oscar Piastri
- Daniel Ricciardo
- Yuki Tsunoda
- Lance Stroll
- Alex Albon
- Esteban Ocon
- Pierre Gasly
- Logan Sargeant
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Valtteri Bottas
- Zhou Guanyu
- Kevin Magnussen
Bold Predictions:
- Lando Norris wins his first race, then gets disqualified after the race.
- Alex Albon gets a podium for Williams.
- Lewis Hamilton will win one of his last five races for Mercedes.
- At least one Grand Prix will be cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.
- Charles Leclerc will get more pole positions than Max Verstappen.
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Note: This article uses the Teammate Performance Index I created, for more information see Introducing The Teammate Performance Index
I originally planned to write this post after seeing some murmuring on Carlos Sainz possibly losing his seat on Twitter. I wanted to show how Carlos did not deserve to lose his seat, by comparing his results to Charles Leclerc’s over the past three seasons. Leclerc, in my opinion, is one of the rising stars of F1 and will almost certainly be a world champion. Other than Verstappen, he is the most exciting young driver in the sport. Yet, Sainz has compared reasonably well to Leclerc, more than most people were expecting. Yet, Sainz did lose his seat. He did not deserve it, but can take some solace to the fact that he only lost his seat to F1’s statistically most successful and marketable driver. But, this article is not about Sainz’s replacement, this is to pay tribute to the fantastic job Carlos has done. So, with no ado, Sainz’s scores on the Teammate Performance Index.
Leclerc Sainz Wins 3 2 Poles 16 5 Podiums 18 16 Points (Excl. Sprints+FL) 632 567.5 Point Positions 53 54 Qualifying H2H 43 23 Race H2H 39 27 DNF/S/Q’s 10 9 Fastest Laps 3 2 Championships 0 0 And converted to percentage.
% Leclerc Sainz Wins 60% 40% Poles 76.19% 23.81% Podiums 52.94% 47.06% Points (Excl. Sprints+FL) 52.69% 47.31% Point Positions 49.53% 50.47% Qualifying H2H 65.15% 34.85% Race H2H 59.09% 40.91% DNF/S/Q’s [Flipped] 47.37% 52.63% Fastest Laps 60% 40% Championships 50% 50% Average 57% 43% Sainz scores reasonably well against Leclerc. Whilst Leclerc has a clear speed advantage, as shown by his domination of Sainz in the pole statistics and qualifying head to heads, on every other measure, Sainz performs with 40% or higher. He has finished in the points more times than Leclerc and has scored 47% of Ferrari’s points over the time. Sainz’s overall average is 43%, far higher than a typical No. 2 driver.[1] This score firmly places Sainz into the category of an equal first driver.
By way of comparison, Leclerc’s first teammate, Sebastian Vettel, was a four-time world champion. Whilst past his prime by the time Leclerc was his teammate, Vettel was still considered one of the strongest F1 drivers, having taken ten wins in the previous two seasons and even seeming like a championship contender for the first half of both seasons. Yet, when Leclerc became Vettel’s teammate, he found himself humbled, as is shown by the statistics.
Leclerc Vettel Wins 2 1 Poles 7 2 Podiums 12 10 Points (Excl. Sprints+FL) 358 271 Point Positions 28 23 Qualifying H2H 25 13 Race H2H 21 17 DNF/S/Q’s 7 5 Fastest Laps 4 2 Championships 0 0 Or in percentage terms.
% Leclerc Vettel Wins 66.67% 33.33% Poles 77.78% 22.22% Podiums 54.55% 45.45% Points (Excl. Sprints+FL) 56.92% 43.08% Point Positions 54.90% 45.10% Qualifying H2H 65.79% 34.21% Race H2H 55.26% 44.74% DNF/S/Q’s [Flipped] 41.67% 58.33% Fastest Laps 66.67% 33.33% Championships 50% 50% Average 59.03% 40.97% Vettel performed worse against Leclerc than Sainz on most metrics. Leclerc dominated Vettel in qualifying slightly more than he did to Sainz, but Vettel also falls back on points, only receiving 45% of the team’s points. Whilst slightly outperforming Sainz in race head-to-heads, Vettel had far more peaks and troughs than Leclerc. Vettel also faced a Leclerc who was new to Ferrari and had only spent one previous season in F1, whilst Sainz entered a Ferrari seen by many as Leclerc’s team. Yet, Vettel’s average was 41%, still less than Sainz would achieve.
Yet, Sainz is now embarking upon his final season with Ferrari. Their car looks beautiful and if testing is to be believed, it seems fast as well. Ferrari should count themselves lucky that they have two drivers performing at a similar level. If their gamble to sign Hamilton does not pay off, they may regret dropping Sainz in the future, especially if he ends up in a rival team. Because other teams are looking at the same statistics that we are and recognize that Sainz is incredibly talented. Be it Audi, Mercedes or Red Bull, they should all heavily consider signing Carlos.
[1] I am currently engaged in data collection for F1’s no 2s, expect to see that article in a month or so, but rest assured, most have far worse statistical results than Sainz.
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