Pole Position: Charles Leclerc
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
- Sergio Perez
Bold Prediction: A Haas car finishes the race 8th or higher.
Tag: Max Verstappen
-
-
This article is part of a series of articles I will be completing throughout the year, where I am going to analyze the average pace of the drivers and teams, in both qualifying and the races, to be able to gain a picture of performance levels.
I have collated the fastest laps by each driver in qualifying, to show the average gap to the fastest driver. One caveat that arises, is that the top 10 drivers, through progressing to the final qualifying session, have a better track condition that those who only took part in Q1 or Q2. Due to this, the gap will be larger for the drivers outside the top ten than if qualifying was performed in one representative session. However, since the final session represents the point at which the top drivers are truly pushing, I’ve ruled it a better grounding point for the true limit of the cars, rather than only focusing on the first qualifying session in which the best times are not recorded.
Qualifying Pace-
With no further ado, here are the gaps to pole[1]:
And for the teams:
Additionally, I have collected the data for the gaps between teammates. I did this by using their fastest lap times set in the same session, so if one driver got into Q3, whilst the other only got into Q2, then I would count their Q2 times. Additionally, the lap times have to be representative, to avoid comparing out laps completed before a driver breaks down, as this would give us a very inaccurate representation of the drivers’ pace:
Race Pace-
Next up in our data sets is the race pace of the drivers. I have calculated the average pace of the drivers, removing first laps, in-laps, out-laps and safety car laps, all not representative of a driver’s general pace. Additionally, if a driver has a spin, or another error that would greatly reduce their lap time, I have not counted these laps, as they would also not be representative of a drivers’ general pace. I have only included drivers that completed at least 75% of the race distance (which for Bahrain, happens to be all the drivers) so to not skew the season long averages against drivers that did not drive on low fuel with the best track conditions.
As different drivers have a varying number of race stints, this skews the overall pace. Generally, if a driver makes more stops, their pace will be faster on average. This will be taken into account in my final thoughts and analysis. Additionally the average pace per stint and number of stints are recorded at the bottom of this article, for those interested in viewing more precise estimates of pace relative to other drivers on the same stint.[2]
And for the teams:
Analysis-
- The Ferrari [and the Mercedes, for that matter] appear to have better tyre degradation than the Red Bull, at least based on this preliminary data. Sainz’s average time throughout a stint barely dropped at all, whilst Verstappen and Perez on the same tyre dropped around a second throughout the stint. This being ubiquitous between Verstappen and Perez also lessens the possibility that this was merely due to the drivers taking it easy. The primary problem, at the moment, is that the Red Bull begins stints so much faster than the Ferrari, that the degradation at the end of the stint fails to matter. But if this proves to be a theme throughout this season, then Ferrari could start challenging for race wins.[3]
- Verstappen’s relative dominance over Perez is clear within their third stints. Verstappen set the fastest lap on lap 39 and this appeared to take a lot out of his soft tyres, setting quite slow times on lap 40 and 41. Nevertheless, by lap 43 Verstappen began posting times consistently faster than Perez.
- The McLaren and the Mercedes showed pretty similar pace throughout the race, positing beginning stint times within a few tenths of each other, all having similar degradation and there being little between the average pace of the four drivers. This may have been compounded by spending some of the race in each other’s dirty air, but they still appear to be the most evenly matched of the top five teams.
- Haas do not look bad based on this data, Hulkenberg in particular impressing. His first stint was only slower than Verstappen, Perez, Russell and Sainz and his third stint was quicker than the McLarens’. Overall, his pace was better than both Aston Martins. Whilst tyre differential from his early stop to new hard tyres may have played a part in this, as well as placing him outside the dirty air, the Haas team still have a lot to be proud of, completely exceeding the standards they set for themselves.
- Pierre Gasly’s average pace is exaggerated by his being one of two drivers to have four race stints. This led to his fourth stint on new softs being the seventh fastest of the race. Without Gasly’s four stints, it’s likely that Alpine would be the slowest team on average in both qualifying and the race. This is looking like an incredibly difficult year for Alpine, which is a shame, because they have two talented young drivers who now look like they’ll be competing with each other to not be last.
Further Resources-
Qualifying Pace:
Driver Fastest Qualifying Time Charles Leclerc 89.165 (0%) Max Verstappen 89.179 (+0.016%) George Russell 89.485 (+0.359%) Carlos Sainz 89.507 (+0.384%) Sergio Perez 89.537 (+0.417%) Fernando Alonso 89.542 (+0.423%) Lando Norris 89.614 (+0.504%) Oscar Piastri 89.683 (+0.581%) Lewis Hamilton 89.71 (+0.611%) Nico Hulkenberg 89.851 (+0.769%) Lance Stroll 89.965 (+0.897%) Yuki Tsunoda 90.129 (+1.081%) Alexander Albon 90.221 (+1.184%) Daniel Ricciardo 90.278 (+1.248%) Kevin Magnussen 90.529 (+1.530%) Valtteri Bottas 90.756 (+1.784%) Zhou Guanyu 90.757 (+1.785%) Logan Sargeant 90.77 (+1.800%) Esteban Ocon 90.793 (+1.826%) Pierre Gasly 90.948 (+2.000%) Average Race Pace:
Driver Pace Max Verstappen 95.654 (0%) Sergio Perez 96.059 (+0.423%) Carlos Sainz 96.103 (0.469%) Charles Leclerc 96.368 (+0.746%) Lando Norris 96.464 (+0.845%) George Russell 96.474 (+0.857%) Lewis Hamilton 96.514 (+0.899%) Oscar Piastri 96.538 (+0.923%) Nico Hulkenberg 96.855 (+1.255%) Fernando Alonso 96.94 (+1.344%) Lance Stroll 97.124 (+1.537%) Pierre Gasly 97.305 (+1.725%) Zhou Guanyu 97.407 (+1.833%) Daniel Ricciardo 97.429 (+1.855%) Kevin Magnussen 97.465 (+1.893%) Yuki Tsunoda 97.486 (+1.914%) Alex Albon 97.535 (+1.966%) Logan Sargeant 97.561 (+1.993%) Valtteri Bottas 97.719 (+2.159%) Esteban Ocon 97.811 (+2.254%) All Stints:
Best Stints Pace Verstappen 3rd (19L/NS) 94.685 Alonso 3rd (15L/NH) 94.992 Perez 3rd (20L/NS) 95.037 Sainz 3rd (21L/NH) 95.052 Leclerc 3rd (22L/NH) 95.222 Hamilton 3rd (23L/NH) 95.414 Gasly 4th (12L/NS) 95.473 Hulkenberg 3rd (14L/US) 95.493 Piastri 3rd (22L/NH) 95.506 Norris 3rd (23L/NH) 95.527 Verstappen 2nd (18L/NH) 95.58 Russell 3rd (25L/NH) 95.72 Sargeant 4th (14L/NS) 95.977 Ricciardo 3rd (20L/NS) 96.149 Sainz 2nd (19L/NH) 96.279 Perez 2nd (22L/NH) 96.281 Albon 3rd (19L/NH) 96.287 Stroll 3rd (29L/NH) 96.432 Magnussen 3rd (23L/NH) 96.501 Gasly 3rd (10L/NH) 96.541 Sargeant 3rd (10L/NH) 96.675 Tsunoda 2nd (21L/NH) 96.677 Norris 2nd (18L/NH) 96.767 Zhou 3rd (27L/NH) 96.856 Leclerc 2nd (21L/NH) 96.898 Piastri 2nd (20L/NH) 96.898 Hamilton 2nd (19L/NH) 96.939 Verstappen 1st (15L/US) 96.972 Russell 2nd (18L/NH) 96.973 Hulkenberg 2nd (19L/NH) 96.997 Bottas 3rd (25L/NH) 97.037 Ocon 3rd (25L/NH) 97.087 Alonso 2nd (24L/NH) 97.299 Russell 1st (9L/US) 97.571 Perez 1st (10L/US) 97.615 Zhou 2nd (17L/NH) 97.663 Sainz 1st (12L/US) 97.665 Tsunoda 2nd (18L/NH) 97.703 Stroll 2nd (16L/NH) 97.752 Hulkenberg 1st (17L/NH) 97.816 Ricciardo 2nd (20L/NH) 97.842 Norris 1st (11L/US) 97.926 Leclerc 1st (9L/US) 97.934 Albon 2nd (19L/NH) 97.956 Bottas 2nd (16L/NH) 97.962 Magnussen 2nd (19L/NH) 97.97 Gasly 2nd (17L/NH) 98.081 Piastri 1st (10L/US) 98.086 Hamilton 1st (10L/US) 98.237 Ocon 2nd (18L/NH) 98.293 Alonso 1st (13L/US) 98.524 Stroll 1st (7L/NS) 98.558 Tsunoda 1st (12L/NS) 98.574 Albon 1st (13L/NS) 98.742 Sargeant 2nd (16L/NH) 98.823 Magnussen 1st (9L/NS) 98.861 Zhou 1st (7L/NS) 98.911 Sargeant 1st (8L/NS) 98.916 Gasly 1st (10L/NS) 98.947 Ocon 1st (8L/NS) 98.986 Ricciardo 1st (11L/US) 99.004 Bottas 1st (10L/NS) 99.038 Key: 1L= One Lap, 2L= Two Laps, NS= New Softs, US= Used Softs, NH= New Hards
Number of Stints:
Number of Stints Drivers 3 Verstappen, Perez, Sainz, Leclerc, Russell, Norris, Hamilton, Piastri, Alonso, Stroll, Zhou, Magnussen, Ricciardo, Tsunoda, Albon, Hulkenberg, Ocon, Bottas 4 Gasly, Sargeant
[1] Or, more accurately, the fastest time in qualifying, which in this case, was not pole, as Leclerc set a faster time than Verstappen’s pole time in Qualifying 2.
[2] I only count a stint if a driver has completed five or more laps, to avoid short stints for fastest lap attempts skewing the data on the table.
[3] I discounted the third stints when coming to this conclusion, as the Red Bull and Ferrari were on different tyres.
-
When Sergio Perez overtook Charles Leclerc on lap four of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, I tweeted that the race was over. I could only see a processional race following, due to the lack of tyre degradation. The best chance to make the race exciting would be an early safety car, as this would lead to differing tyre strategies across the field. Thankfully, Lance Stroll saved this race by crashing on lap six.
Following the early safety car, Max Verstappen was not in the lead, needing to catch and pass the McLaren of Lando Norris, who had declined to stop under the safety car. Whilst Norris needing to stop meant that this battle would likely not affect the final result, Lando still fought valiantly, keeping Max behind for multiple laps on his medium tyres. I savor every moment Max Verstappen needs to catch and pass a rival car. Max is one of the best drivers in Formula One, so it’s a shame his domination means we seldom see him in battles anymore. Whilst the battle at the front was brief, the safety car provided for a number of smaller storylines to take place throughout the race. These storylines, whilst not making the race an all-time classic, kept me intrigued and entertained throughout.
The tyre strategies also meant that we got to clearly see the differing characteristics of the McLaren and Mercedes cars. Hamilton, who had not stopped, kept Oscar Piastri behind for much of the race. Whilst Piastri could close up to Hamilton during the lap, the McLaren was slow in a straight line and had an inefficient drag reduction system. Yet, when Hamilton found himself directly behind a McLaren (Lando Norris) after his pit stop, he also could not overtake. In the high-speed corners, the Mercedes could not keep up with Lando, who was pulling ahead in the first sector by almost a second. When we got to see Lewis’ onboard it was clear how much that Mercedes was struggling with high-speed performance, he began the sector right behind Norris and ended the sector barely able to see him. These clear differentials and contrasting strength and weaknesses between the two cars should provide for some entertaining battles throughout the season and it was exciting to see the first of these battles debut in Saudi.
The debut of Oliver Bearman was another highlight. As well as having my favorite name for a person ever, Ollie also had a Ferrari drive this weekend, courtesy of Carlos Sainz needing surgery for appendicitis. A lot of the focus went into Ollie’s debut this weekend and he impressed, by finishing 7th. After learning the ropes of overtaking and carving his way through the midfield, Ollie found himself under pressure towards the end of the race. Both Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton decided to pit towards the end of the race, with hopes of making up multiple positions on fresh soft tyres. Yet, they never got close to Bearman, who kept a consistent pace on his aging hard tyres. Despite no experience managing F1 tyres, a consistent pitfall for rookies, Ollie showed this weekend why he is one of the stars of the future and I personally loved seeing the Bearcub evolve into the Bearman.
My favorite part of the race, however, was seeing Kevin Magnussen embracing chaos. After demonstrating questionable driving standards that led to a couple of incidents, Magnussen was handed twenty seconds worth of penalties. However, as Haas had not pit Nico Hulkenberg under the safety car, this provided the team with an opportunity to utilize an unorthodox strategy. Magnussen was in front of much of the bottom half of the field and was ordered to hold them up, to give Hulkenberg a gap to pit into.[1] He succeeded, building a train of cars so long one could call it the Magnussen Express. And similarly to many English train companies, he frustrated every passenger by delaying their progress indefinitely. The midfield used the opportunity to jostle with each other, but had no chance of overtaking that Haas, which appears to be an incredibly efficient car in a straight line. Hulkenberg got the gap he needed to pit in thanks to Kevin’s efforts, providing Haas with their first point of the season. Perhaps I was wrong to doubt Haas’ ability to perform, as new Team Principle Komatsu is doing the job that Gene Haas set out for him, to maximize every result with the car that they already have.[2]
So, I was surprised at the end of the race at how entertained I had found myself. These smaller storylines had made me forget the constant killjoy of having the same winner every week. As this Red Bull looks very good and will likely win the vast majority of races, I’d recommend to fans to put their focus onto these other storylines, as the sport is brimming with them.
[1] The cars behind Magnussen after his overtake on Tsunoda [which he received one of his ten second penalties for] were Tsunoda, Ocon, Albon, Sargeant, Bottas and Ricciardo].
[2] EXCLUSIVE: ‘It came down to performance’ – Gene Haas on Guenther Steiner’s departure and what it means for his team’s future, Lawrence Barretto (11 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.exclusive-gene-haas-guenther-steiner-departure-f1-team-future.3pt87IVfCzoOgJLV19Atf4.html
-
This is part of a series of articles I will write during the year, to highlight some of the best performances of the weekend. I originally considered ranking all of the drivers, but wanted to keep this series positive, so am only focusing on the best performances F1 had to offer. Thus, in no particular order, five standouts from the weekend.
- Max Verstappen-
What more can be said about Verstappen? On a weekend where I had some hope of a Ferrari challenge, Max went and achieved a grand slam. He drove a car not dominant in qualifying to pole position, then drove away from the field, setting a fastest lap 1.4 seconds faster than anyone else. Verstappen deserves an endless amount of respect for his performances and I expect he’ll feature a lot in this series throughout this year. Perez also performed well, using the natural pace of that Red Bull to finish second, but Max was still 22 seconds ahead of him. Utter domination.
2. Carlos Sainz-
Sainz maximized his opportunities on Saturday. While his teammate suffered from brake issues and the Mercedes’ had cooling problems, Sainz still needed to overtake several cars to secure his place on the podium. He duly delivered a daring drive, with his moves on his teammate being particularly tenacious. If Carlos wants to get himself the best possible drive for 2025, he certainly started the season on the right foot.
3. Charles Leclerc-
Consistent brake issues meant Charles was lacking in pace compared to Carlos. We were robbed of seeing Charles at his best. But a 90% performance from Charles is still a gold star performance. Despite visibly awful issues, with a car that could barely turn right without locking up, Charles only finished 14 seconds behind his teammate and was comfortably ahead of the Mercedes powered cars. He even set the second fastest lap of the race. Most drivers who had the issues Charles faced this weekend would not have maximized their performance like this. The fact that Charles did provides me with hope that, when he has a fully working car underneath him, Charles can take the fight to the Red Bulls.
4. George Russell-
With so much talk and headlines involving Mercedes focusing on Lewis Hamilton, it becomes hard to remember that they have two top drivers. George Russell duly reminded me on Saturday, delivering when his teammate struggled. Russell qualified ahead of a Red Bull and a Ferrari, in a car that is yet to show it has the outright pace to do so. He then looked on for a podium for the first third of the race. Whilst he faded slightly, with his race pace being hindered by a cooling issue he showed a fighting spirit and extracted the maximum potential from the car he was given. The battle between him and Lewis will be fascinating this season and I’m personally interested to see how many of Mercedes’ eggs start falling in George’s basket.
5. Zhou Guanyu-
Zhou may have not finished in the points, but he took a car that did not look very fast and utilized a strategic offset, undercutting the bottom half of the field and then managing his tyres throughout the stints, to finish ahead of a number of faster cars and kick Sauber’s season off with a solid, if unremarkable, result. If Zhou wants to make a case to remain in F1 in a year where his contract is up, this is the perfect start.
Shoutout- Zane Maloney-
An acknowledgement has to Zane Maloney for his performance in F2 this weekend. He decided to become the Verstappen of F2, winning both the sprint and feature races easily. The overtakes he made in the sprint race were stunning, especially on Fittipaldi, which may be my moment of the weekend. In a weekend where other drivers expected for challenge for the title faltered, Maloney shone. There’s a long season to go, but the boy from Barbados just firmly put himself in title contention.
-
There was a lot of excitement regarding a Ferrari fightback through testing and practice. When Verstappen still clinched pole, there was disappointment, but I told myself that this Ferrari looks good and appears to have sorted their tyre wear problems. So of course, the race begins with Leclerc locking up at seemingly every corner. These lock ups were not a result of poor tyre wear, rather an issue with Leclerc’s brakes. Several drivers had issues throughout this race, with both Mercedes suffering from battery issues and Hamilton reporting that his seat was broken. Between these issues and the inevitable squabbling between drivers that resulted, Verstappen was allowed to drive off into the distance, a sight we’ve become used to seeing.
Albeit the first third of the race was quite entertaining. All the cars were relatively close and there was always a battle to cut to. Perez passing Leclerc and Seargeant passing Ricciardo were memorable, but the best battle came from the two Ferraris. Sainz clearly does not care whose feathers he ruffles, making an aggressive overtake on Leclerc on lap 11, before shutting the door on his teammate. Sainz then had to do the same on lap 17, after the first round of stops, before passing George Russell three laps later to bag himself a podium. As for Sainz’s replacement, he finished two places behind his teammate and spent more TV time going off the track than driving on it.
The race became more sparse of action shortly after the first stops. Gaps started to emerge between the drivers and the cars slotted into their natural positions. A personal highlight was watching Bottas’ 52-second pit stop, only for the TV directors to decide that as there was nothing else going on, we might as well spend a minute watching it again. Oscar Piastri attempting to defend from Lewis Hamilton on freezing tyres also entertained, though the difference in grip made that particular pass inevitable from the word go.
Thus, it fell on Visa Cash App to provide us with some drama. The car could have received a point with Tsunoda today, but the team allowed for Yuki to get undercut by multiple cars, likely as the team members were too busy checking their Visa Cash Apps. With so much focus on the current cost of living crisis, one would forget to do their job, a bit like when I found smashed up eggs under the fruit cases when working at Sainsburys. Though, even more controversially than me having to remove eggshells that were literally welded to the shelf, would be RB’s use of team orders. As Tsunoda was attempting to set up a move on Kevin Magnussen, they ordered a driver swap with Ricciardo. Yuki was not happy with this, arguing with the team until relinquishing the position a couple of laps later. I understand Yuki’s frustrations. In a year where a Red Bull seat is possibly on the line for him, he needs to beat Ricciardo consistently. After being in the hunt for points, to have the team mess up his strategy and use unnecessary team orders, I would be angry as well. What was less acceptable was when Yuki decided to divebomb Ricciardo after the race had finished. Moments of road rage are not good examples to set, especially when that road rage is directed against someone you are soon going to be spending hours in meetings with.
As the junior RB team provided some entertainment, the senior RB team sucked out a lot of it. Whilst I haven’t given up hope of there being some battles for the win this season, Red Bull getting yet another 1-2 has not filled me with unbridled optimism. As this may be one of the better chances for Ferrari to win in the early portion of the season, we may have to get used to learning the Dutch National Anthem. Again.
-
Pole Position: Charles Leclerc
1st: Max Verstappen
2nd: Charles Leclerc
3rd: Lewis Hamilton
Bonus Prediction: Both VCARBs in Q3
-
With the first race just days away, now is a great time to predict the championship standings. I have deliberately avoided seeing anyone else’s predictions, so am relying on testing, reports and social media reports to come up with these predictions.
Constructors Championship:
10: Sauber
As well as having a really poor sponsorship I wrote an article about, Sauber didn’t inspire much hope during testing. I expect a tough couple of seasons before Audi takes over the team.
9: Haas
I am taking a risk by not putting Haas last. But despite the general pessimism from the team, I’m betting on both Haas and Sauber not scoring many points, so it should only take one good result to swing the standings. I would not be surprised to see a surprise finish from Hulkenberg that would prevent Haas from finishing last again.
8: Alpine
In F1 testing Alpine looked like they could be the slowest team. Reports hint that the car is overweight and lacks downforce. Yes, the team should develop throughout the year but I don’t suspect them to develop fast enough to escape the lower midfield.
7: Williams
Albon proved last year that he can deliver consistently and singlehandedly won Williams seventh last year. For Williams to secure this position though, Logan Sargeant needs to perform. Sargeant had a really poor season last year, only scoring one point to Albon’s twenty-seven. But, if the Williams is a more stable car, hopefully Sargeant can score some better results to be top of the lower midfield.
6: Visa Cash App RB
Whilst having a ridiculous name, the VCARB impressed at pre-season testing. I expect them to occupy the position Alpine did last year, not challenging the top teams, but removed from the cars behind them..
5: Aston Martin
Alonso’s long run pace was quite impressive at pre-season testing. Whilst few expect a repeat of last year, where Aston Martin launched as the second fastest car, I do believe that they’ll be competing with the other top teams for podiums. They may even develop into one of the fastest cars. However, I cannot in good conscience put them any higher than fifth, due to the presence of Lance Stroll. He had a pretty terrible season last year and I expect this form to continue. But, if Stroll can turn his performances around, Aston could challenge for the top three places.
4: McLaren
I published an article at the beginning of the year doubting McLaren’s ambitions to be a Red Bull challenger. I based this upon the fact that McLaren had a history of making overly ambitious targets before their car had tested. Their long run pace appears to have vindicated me, as they look quite a way behind Red Bull and Ferrari. Whilst the track characteristics of Bahrain would exaggerate the deficit, as the McLaren was best in high-speed tracks last year, I think it unlikely that McLaren will immediately be challenging for race wins. However, as they have proven over the last two years, the team has a knack for in season development. This will likely save their season and despite my doubts, I do hope to see some McLaren race wins this year.
3: Mercedes
I expect Mercedes to have a very track specific car, as they have for the last couple of years, but probably with higher highs than the last two years. I think Mercedes, McLaren and possibly Aston Martin will be locked in a season long battle for third. But I think Mercedes has the best driver line up and Lewis Hamilton and George Russell should both be able to get wins if the car allows it.
2: Ferrari
Ferrari’s long run pace at the pre-season testing looked impressive. They do not look that far off Red Bull. I still expect Red Bull to be champions yet am optimistic that Ferrari will get a number of race wins this year.
1: Red Bull
The RB20 looks intimidating. Max Verstappen did not look to have any degradation in his long run pace and the team may have even found the W13’s missing downforce. A combination of another dominant car and the best driver in F1 should deliver them a relatively easy constructors’ championship.
Drivers Championship:
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
- Sergio Perez
- Lewis Hamilton
- Fernando Alonso
- Carlos Sainz
- Lando Norris
- George Russell
- Oscar Piastri
- Daniel Ricciardo
- Yuki Tsunoda
- Lance Stroll
- Alex Albon
- Esteban Ocon
- Pierre Gasly
- Logan Sargeant
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Valtteri Bottas
- Zhou Guanyu
- Kevin Magnussen
Bold Predictions:
- Lando Norris wins his first race, then gets disqualified after the race.
- Alex Albon gets a podium for Williams.
- Lewis Hamilton will win one of his last five races for Mercedes.
- At least one Grand Prix will be cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.
- Charles Leclerc will get more pole positions than Max Verstappen.
Ryan's Lil' F1 Blog 