I had a pretty solid plan to lay a foundation for this blog. Find out when every team will release their livery and plan an article about a topic relating to that team, along with feedback on their livery. Unfortunately, ever the adept marketeers, McLaren surprised us all, by releasing their livery without giving me a forewarning.[1] The livery itself is beautiful. I have not been a fan of the last couple McLaren liveries, feeling that the light blue colours used fundamentally clashed with the papaya. Seeing the ‘Stealth’ livery last year, I saw it as having far more potential. It appears that the livery designer thought so as well, ditching the blue for a sleek, modern, orange and black colour scheme. Now their car has the intimidating look of a tiger, ready to hunt down and strike the opposition.

Not only does the team possess a fast looking livery, but there is optimism coming out of the team that the car may follow suit, with both McLaren CEO Zak Brown and Team Principal Andrea Stella feeling that Lando Norris may win his first race this year, though remaining cautious about the possibility of continuing Red Bull domination.[2] But, looking at McLaren’s development last season, there is reason to feel optimistic.

McLaren began last year abysmally, with Zak Brown admitting after the pre-season test that they had ‘set some goals for development which we didn’t hit.’[3] The team only scored points in three of the opening eight races, with a best result of 6^th in Australia. But in season developments proved strong, with Norris instantly impressing with a 4^th place finish in Austria. From thence, the team became a regular contender for podiums and even bagged a sprint race win in Qatar, thanks to their impressive rookie driver, Oscar Piastri. McLaren expect this development to continue, with Brown stating that ‘we’re feeling good about our development’ and Stella believing ‘when it comes to the wind tunnel development or CFD development we see that the gradient we established last year that led to the Austria development and then the Singapore development – it seems we can maintain it.’[4] Max Verstappen also seems phased by McLaren’s trajectory, implying in a recent podcast that he sees them as his greatest rivals next season.[5]

However, a short view to McLaren’s recent past tempers the all-encompassing hype they are receiving at present.

In 2021, McLaren had a solid season, with Lando becoming a regular podium finisher, spending the early part of the season fighting for third in the championship and Daniel Ricciardo winning McLaren’s first race since 2012. The team was, therefore, ambitious heading into the new rule cycle in 2022.[6] Whilst they believed that their return to the front was still a few years away, they hoped to continue achieving podiums, possibly wins and set a target to get more average points per race than in 2021.[7] Zak Brown was confident that the team he had built was ‘the team of people which will ultimately get us back to the front’ and after the first test in Barcelona, Ricciardo described it as ‘a pretty flawless three days for the team.’[8] It did not take long for this bullishness to fade, with McLaren ruing brake issues in the Bahrain pre-season test and after the first race the car was criticized by Ricciardo for being a ‘long way’ from the podium and lacking straight line speed.[9] Whilst not achieving as substantial a turnaround as they would in 2023, McLaren did develop, being near the top of the midfield by the year’s end. Whilst McLaren are perhaps more remembered last season for admitting to missing their targets, this admission only came after the Bahrain pre-season test, the exact same point where the problems arose in 2022. Before then, outgoing team boss Andrea Seidl expressed optimism that McLaren’s development path put them on track to begin to take the fight to the big teams in 2023 and Zak Brown stated at the car launch that ‘We learnt a lot [from 2022] which has been taken into the off-season as the entire team works hard to prepare for another year.[10] Yet despite this optimism, once preseason testing began last year, McLaren found themselves in an even worse position than in 2022.

Does this mean that I think McLaren will find themselves in the same position for the third year in a row? No, I find this unlikely. But I believe that fans need to hit the brakes on predictions of McLaren taking the fight to Red Bull or being the clear second-best team. Even in their season post-Austria, McLaren were capable of performance deficits, such as setting up their car with far too much downforce in Belgium, or being completely off the pace in Las Vegas.[11] Additionally, McLaren have a difficult car to drive, even when it’s fast, drivers find they constantly have to drive it on the limit, leading to mistakes being made more easily.[12] False dawns happen in F1 all the time and the short-term thinking that envisions immediate success for McLaren is the same thinking that led many fans to believing that Alonso would definitely get his 33^rd win last year. Whilst there are many factors, such as the lack in regulation changes, one of the best driver line ups in F1 or the impressive development McLaren made last year, that make it likely that McLaren will continue to rise, these same factors were present last year and the team initially fell back. Whilst there is hope for many McLaren fans, fans should not rule out Ferrari or Mercedes in being the team that gets closest to Red Bull next year. These teams have a recent proven track record of wins and success that McLaren doesn’t yet have. As much as all fans want to see this beautiful car fighting at the front, my reservation causes me to temper my hype, at least until predictions of success translate into poles and race wins. But if this tiger does get hunting, no doubt most fans want to see it chasing down a couple of bulls.

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[1] McLaren become first F1 team to unveil 2024 look with new livery revealed (16 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.mclaren-new-livery-reveal-2024-f1-season.216OAbbqt6SWUjIio6GLqP.html

[2] ‘He is ready’: McLaren hopeful Lando Norris can claim first F1 win in 2024, Giles Richards, The Guardian (16 January 2024) https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/jan/16/he-is-ready-mclaren-hopeful-lando-norris-can-claim-first-f1-win-in-2024

[3] F1 team bosses reveal pecking order predictions as McLaren admit they’ve missed ‘projected targets’ (24 February 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.f1-team-bosses-reveal-pecking-order-predictions-as-mclaren-admit-theyve.6UlcuKUciwSzl6pngGid1q.html

[4] Brown sets clear McLaren target for start of 2024 as he says team are ‘feeling good about development’ (3 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.brown-sets-clear-mclaren-target-for-start-of-2024-as-he-says-team-are.3cFyWmIoyl99s0xLS5kbZP.html; ANALYSIS: As McLaren reveal their new livery, are they the team set to take the fight to Red Bull in 2024?, Lawrence Barretto (16 January 2024) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.analysis-as-mclaren-reveal-their-new-livery-are-they-the-team-set-to-take.2AI3XI0SyxGIIzowJtYUzm.html

[5] Max and Checo Reflect On The 2023 F1 Season | Talking Bull (20 December 2023) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yj55KGOZcvM

[6] McLaren showcase bold new livery as they reveal 2022 challenger, the MCL36 (11 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-mclaren-showcase-bold-new-livery-as-they-reveal-2022-challenger-the.5etd9Tgo3ivFuzQIJFNt5r.html; ‘It’s definitely a big opportunity’ says Norris as McLaren reveal 2022-spec MCL36 (11 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.its-definitely-a-big-opportunity-says-norris-as-mclaren-reveal-2022-spec.6obJepiNy4cj0sKEZl270s.html

[7] Why McLaren are ambitious but realistic about 2022 prospects, Lawrence Barretto (11 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.why-mclaren-are-ambitious-but-realistic-about-2022-prospects.14JZh8h7sE2P6Xsd37J90M.html, This prediction was ultimately nowhere close to happening, with McLaren achieving an average of 7.2 points per race in 2022, compared to 12.5 in 2021.

[8] Why McLaren are ambitious but realistic about 2022 prospects https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.why-mclaren-are-ambitious-but-realistic-about-2022-prospects.14JZh8h7sE2P6Xsd37J90M.html This quote from Zak Brown doesn’t play well in hindsight, as only a year later, both Team Principal Andreas Seidl and Technical Director James Key had gone and McLaren committed to reshuffling their technical department; Ricciardo says McLaren executed a ‘pretty flawless’ pre-season programme in Spain (28 February 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.ricciardo-says-mclaren-executed-a-pretty-flawless-pre-season-programme-in.FoWfPSUqPS6NzlGOPwDIk.html

[9] Norris says brake problems have hampered McLaren in Bahrain testing – and warns ‘it’s not going to be an easy fix’ (11 March 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-says-brake-problem-has-hampered-mclaren-and-warns-its-not-going-to-be.439p3EASA6iWBBhLHysTQ2.html; ‘We don’t have a good enough car’ – McLaren drivers downbeat after point-less Bahrain GP showing (22 March 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.we-dont-have-a-good-enough-car-mclaren-drivers-downbeat-after-point-less.8dC2f5adzc7p6MLF3rUgK.html

[10] ‘I see a lot of positives’ – Seidl proud of McLaren’s progress in his final year in charge (16 December 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.i-see-a-lot-of-positives-seidl-proud-of-mclarens-progress-in-his-final-year.50x6QaAUzjBYCwYa7azzXi.html; FIRST LOOK: McLaren present vibrant-looking MCL60 to kick off 2023 anniversary year (13 February 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.first-look-mclaren-present-vibrant-looking-mcl60-to-kick-off-2023.5gnCsx6H01YFs97JlP4ax5.html

[11] ‘It was painful’ – Norris describes McLaren’s straight-line speed struggles after surprise P7 finish in Belgium (31 July 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.it-was-painful-norris-describes-mclarens-straight-line-speed-struggles-after.1d1xbX04BVyD5iXDr2FLBr.html; Norris labels Las Vegas qualifying a ‘reality check’ after double Q1 exit for McLaren (18 November 2023) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-labels-las-vegas-qualifying-a-reality-check-after-double-q1-exit-for.6LiN0GbBk5qWJD3UN8WNqJ.html

[12] Norris says he understands ‘certain parts’ of Ricciardo’s struggles with McLaren in 2022 (15 July 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-says-he-understands-certain-parts-of-ricciardos-struggles-with.646UD3WYQxUGdH66c6k6p0.html; Norris admits MCL36 is ‘unsuited’ to his driving style, but eyes long-term success with McLaren (22 September 2022) https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.norris-admits-mcl36-is-unsuited-to-his-driving-style-but-eyes-long-term.2EkbfuEMtuRjuQbqeu1ncF.html, These consistent struggles, expressed by drivers like Norris, Sainz and Ricciardo, perhaps help to explain the crucial mistakes made in a few qualifying sessions by Lando last year, at races where it was possible to challenge for the win. If drivers are provided with a car that is difficult to drive on the limit, they will naturally make more mistakes, even if they are incredibly talented.